OddsJam Betting Results for Week 16 of 52

Welcome to week sixteen of a 52-week account of my experience over the year with OddsJam.

You can read about last week here: OddsJam Bettings Results for Week 15 of 52.

Recap

Week 16 ended up with a slight profit. The entire week was in the red, until a monster day on Saturday when I set a new daily profit record for a single day. That was very fitting as I just finished up November (OddsJam Betting Results for November 2023)with a record monthly profit! Setting new highs is always a good thing. It might be nicer to have more consistent winnings, but that is the nature of variance in positive expected value (+EV) sports betting

It was a much slower week for betting with only 109 bets in for the week. That is below where I’d like it to be. However, sports betting needs to take a back seat to my actual job. And it will always come after time with my two little ones at home.

I have setup email notifications for arbs again as that at least helps me see a few more patterns about when bets are being released. Putting in a few arbs (guaranteed profit) at 10%+ is always going to help the bankroll.

I’ve had a few very good hits with player rebounds hitting, so much so that what used to be a net negative has swung to a respectable positive. I wish I could say the same for player shots on goal. We’ll call it a work in progress and see if we can’t get shots on goal to turn around for me as well. I’ll look for a similar approach with rebounds where I start to look for higher edges and narrower widths for the bets I place.

As mentioned above, I’ve setup email notifications for arbs. This has already helped me put in more early bets on NFL with the added bonus of them being guaranteed profit. I am also looking to add a few extra books to help. A nice fetaure at OddsJam is you can simply tick to add a book and see how many come up int he feed. (Note: A recent frustration is a book I added wasn’t showing the correct lines on OddsJam. So, what looked like a solid book to add hasn’t worked … yet. I’ve passed it on to the team so they can sort it out.)

I had a rough week with NBA bets. However, NCAAB had a strong showing to more than balance out the NBA losses. With so few bets in for the week, that might be a reason NBA was off the mark as I was getting 100 bets in on NBA alone in recent weeks, which helps smooth out the variance.

NHL was a positive again for the week as well. NFL was down about $25 on a handful of bets.

Plenty of high edges again. Maybe not as many as other recent weeks, but I still bet on a good few. Seeing so many at 5%+ is always encouraging and I wager on a lot less than that. Surprisingly, the arb email notifications (you need to be fast to get those bets placed), has reminded me just how many arbs there are with respectable returns – many 3% and over, with a few at more than 10%.

NFL, NHL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAAB are all underway. Now is a great time to start your own profitable sports betting journey! Start your free trial of OddsJam. “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take” – Gretzky.

Highlights

For this week, the biggest edge I found was in the Raptors-Nets game. I was hoping for Jakob Poeltl to have under 8.5 rebounds at an edge of just over 15% with odds at 2.32 (+132 American). Unfortunately, the line moved and the CLV had the same odds. Luckily, the wager was small enough to not sting too badly.

I hit on Luka Doncic in the O/U 49.5 PRA market in the Thunder-Mavericks game. This was an arb, so the result didn’t matter and the profit was locked in at over 13%. A tidy profit that I’ll take any chance I can get.

The long shot for the week came in the same game as the biggest edge landed. Doncic hit over 49.5 PRA (crushing it really with 69 on the night). When I placed this arb, the book had the over at odds of 3 (+200 American). The CLV came in at 1.96 (-104 American).

The worst miss for this week came in the Hornets-Nets game when Cameron Johnson couldn’t manage 3 or more assists. I placed the bet with the odds at 1.72 (-139 American) and the CLV was 1.65 (-153 American). Of course, I should expect to miss on 40% of the bets with this CLV.

Results

I made a change a few weeks back and started to post using real dollar figures (see my First Quarter update if you want to know why). I’ve also started updating my bankroll every month, but will probably start doing that every week just to keep pace.

A dismal-looking week (the 30th should be red too, OddsJam hasn’t sorted the rollover of the month for someone like me in New Zealand and the time difference.) Saturday rescued the week and I ended with a profit of $24. That works out to be a 1% average profit per wager for the week.

The 109 bets in for the week is lower than I’d like. However, given the week I was having, it may have worked in my favor. Well below the target of 300+ (settling for 200+ as a respectable week) – so still a work in progress. The 109 is well below the mark I set a few weeks ago. I’ll get there again.

Crazy that 6 of the 7 days were losses, yet one really good day makes up for that. The key to all of that was that I wasn’t pulling back on my bet size, which is something you may be tempted to do when you are on a losing streak. However, if you do reduce your bet size (going with the Kelly bet sizing for your bankroll), you risk not being able to get back to the positive when the variance swings back in your favor. The same is true about going to a bigger bet size when you feel you are on a hot streak. Stick to the plan for long-term sustainable growth with +EV betting.

The Numbers

I beat the CLV 76% of the time this week. Again, a slight pullback as I’m trying to place more bets with slightly smaller edges. I only won 48% of the bets this week. My profit margin per wager was just over 1%. This will help balance out the 8% from last week. I had a turnover of $2340 for the week (proof that I wasn’t cutting bet size given the number of bets I placed).

Here is something to think about. I’m just about turning over my bankroll every week. My long-run return per bet is about 6%. It doesn’t work out exactly, but this is close to compounding at 6% per week. How does that sound for a solid rate of return!

With November finished, I have updated my bankroll to reflect the solid performance, closing out with over $800 in profit. So, my bankroll now sits at about $4k.All things being equal, this should push up the average wager per bet, the weekly turnover, and profits. Compound growth is a wonderful thing.

Sweet November

Sweet November came to a close with a bit of a downswing. November was still the best month I’ve ever had using OddsJam! The $800 in profit was fantastic! I didn’t hit the $1k target, so I hope to get there in December.

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