So, now that I’ve been on this journey with OddsJam for a while, I thought it was time for an update. I’ve been at this for more than a few months now and I have learned more and more as I’ve progressed. I’ve been fortunate enough to have some lengthy conversations over X (Twitter) DMs with a few people that wanted to know more (you can find my account here: BeyondTheEV on Twitter).
Those conversations made me reflect on just how much knowledge you accumulate over time just by doing the work. Viewing your progress in relation to someone who is at the starting line is a great way to realize just how far you’ve come.
Reviewing the Data
As I did the first time, I’ll go back to my real OddsJam data to help with the comparison. In the original post I showed the profit margin per wager and the percentage of time I beat the closing line value (CLV). I’ll do the same again comparing the overall picture then and now, and I’ll also include the numbers since I started writing about my journey.
Profit Margin and Closing Line Value
Past Year: Then
Past Year: Now
Since I Started Writing
I’ve been hitting some positive variance over the past few months, including my BEST MONTH EVER and that has helped push my profit margin per wager up significantly in that time while the CLV rate has stayed more or less the same.
Variance is part of positive expected value betting (aka +EV, aka value betting). Some days it can be a large part of it. However, when you look over the long term and have a large enough sample size of a few thousand bets, it tends toward the rate of return expected.
Even though I have started to add in some arbitrage betting (aka arbs), the vast majority of the bets I place are +EV. This is down to two main reasons: the books I have available to me; and the number of arbs that are available for the books that I am using. If I were in the US, I’d certainly be using DraftKings, FanDuel, MGM, and Ceasers. In Canada, I’d be looking to use similar books depending on the province I was in. In Europe or Australia, I’d have access to different books again – probably with more options than I have. However, I’m in New Zealand and have to work with the books available to me.
To keep things very clear to those who may not know, +EV and arb betting are not ‘sports betting tips’ or ‘sports betting picks’ or ‘expert picks’ or any other gimmick like that. No, +EV is based on solid math where you find an edge over the line that the book is offering. Arbitrage betting finds lines at competing books that offer a guaranteed return.
Total Bets and Percentage of Bets Won
I looked at these numbers last time too to help clarify how many bets I’m generally placing. The percentage of bets won is not really helpful without some context. Most of the bets I place are around the breakeven point, odds of 2 (+100 American), so I expect to win about half the time. If I placed more bets on favorites, that number would need to be higher to turn a profit. If I bet on more long shots, it could be much lower and I’d still turn a profit.
Past Year: Then
Past Year: Now
Since I Started Writing
As you can see, I’ve started putting in a LOT more bets. Some days, like when the NBA has 10 or more games on, I get a lot more bets in. Betting on player props, something OddsJam and I both recommend, allows for a lot more bets per game. With multiple books on the go, you can get in even more bets all with +EV.
Having a similar number of bets placed over the past few months as I did in the entire year before I started really pushing and going on this journey is a reflection of the determination I have to become a profitable sports bettor. There are, of course, a few things I could do to help that along, but more on that in a bit.
Finding and Edge
Before starting the push, I had an edge of 3.75% per bet. Over the last few months that has increased to over 6.5%. That could just be some positive variance. A lot of positive variance. However, I know that I am getting in more and more bets with a higher edge, all found with OddsJam. Their data-driven approach to figuring out the closing lines has helped boost my returns even more.
Closing Line Value
I’m still crushing the closing line value. That still doesn’t mean that I am profitable every day, although I am in the green more days than I am in the red. Pushing the CLV to over 80% is not intentional. It probably suggests I should be placing more bets with a slightly smaller edge as I might be leaving money on the table. However, it is encouraging and boosts my confidence to know that the bets I am placing will beat the CLV most of the time.
Bet Volume
There has been a significant uptick in the total bets I’ve placed. When I had started I had averaged about 5 bets a day over the past year. Since I started writing about my progress, I’m averaging over 13. Yes, there are still days when I don’t get bets in because I have other priorities. There are days without many games as well. Or, as is the case from time to time, I’m not free when the bets could be placed – many don’t last for long, especially close to game time. However, adding more books could help push this even higher.
Winning Percentage
As mentioned above, this isn’t a helpful number without the context of the odds taken when placing a bet. I’ve said enough on that above. The only other thing worth mentioning here is that the lower the odds placed, the higher this number should be and that should also result in lower variance. Conversely, the higher the odds places, the lower that number should be and the higher your variance. All of that will depend on your ability to handle the swings that come with the territory.
Things I’ve Learned
Every sports bettor is different. Check X (Twitter) and you’ll find a host of bettors using only arbs (mostly live) with bigger bankrolls in the US with access to the big four (DK, FD, MGM, Ceasers) who are crushing it! Good on them. I’m not in a position to set aside a bigger bankroll and I don’t have access to those books. So, I stick with what I know, but I’m humble enough to ask and learn more.
Other sports bettors are looking more for picks or tips. You might get lucky with those. However, math tells me that +EV will win long-term. Arbs are guaranteed. Keep using either or both and turning over your bankroll, and you’ll keep increasing your bankroll long-term.
How much time you have available and when will impact on the bets you can place. If you are free an hour or so before the start of a game and free during the game, you will be easily able to get in lots of pre-match bets and even more live bets.
You need to be quick, and the quicker the better. Learn how to quickly navigate the different books. Learn keyboard shortcuts. Use split-screen or multiple monitors so you can see more of what you need to get the bets placed. Lines move fast. Live lines move even faster. (FYI, I have only dabbled in live betting so far, but it is certainly something that I’d like to explore in more depth.)
Spend the time learning the tools in your OddsJam plan. Knowing how to get the most out of what is offered can easily increase your profits. Even slight increases in profit compound quickly. Ask them for help in the live chat. You can DM me on X (Twitter) Ben@BeyondTheEV or email me at ben@beyondtheev.com.
Keep some of your bankroll in cash so you can top-up different books as needed. I’ve run into this a few times when I keep running up my bankroll at a single book for a while and end up needing to move money around. This takes time, and usually has fees, and I’ve missed out on opportunities to add new books or land some nice arbs. I’d rather not withdraw if I can avoid it. However, taking advantage of the different bonuses, especially sign-up bonuses, is a great way to grow your bankroll.
If you are just reading to see how I’m going on my journey, feel free to skip this next part and finish the article here. Thanks for your time.
Your Turn
So, if you’ve made it this far, I would think you are ready to consider a trial of OddsJam. They do have different plans to cater to different sports bettors.
If you are just starting and looking to build from a starting bankroll of under $1k, I’d suggest the Promo Optimizer Plan. It gives you the tools to convert free bets and sign-up bonuses (low-holds) to grow your bankroll. If you’ve got about $2k or more and are ready to get those sign-up bonuses and start placing pre-match +EV and arb bets, then it is the Positive EV Plan. If you’ve got $5k or more, can put in the time during the games, and are quick enough to place live +EV and arbs, then you should consider the Platinum Plan.
Disclaimer: Links to OddsJam are affiliate links and I am not hiding that. I truly believe in their product and use it daily. Visit OddsJam for a 7-day free trial and see for yourself. Use code Beyond35 for 35% off your first month.