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OddsJam Betting Results for Week 19 of 52

Welcome to week nineteen of a 52-week account of my experience over the year with OddsJam.

You can read about last week here: OddsJam Bettings Results for Week 18 of 52.

A late post this week as the holidays are here and family comes first.

Recap

To be blunt, it was an awful week! Only a single profitable day! Three things worth considering though:

  1. I am still averaging over 4% profit/trade for the month.
  2. 2. Over the past few months, I have been experiencing a lot of positive variance, so this correction is expected.
  3. Most days could have been profitable if any one of a number of bets went in my favor, which is not unexpected with +EV (positive value) betting.

At this point, the chances of hitting $1k in profit for the month seem very slim. That is the nature of +EV betting, and we’ll take the mixed results in the short-term knowing that profit is expected long-term, and I’m seeing that profit.

For the books that I am using, it looks like arbs are still too infrequent to significantly impact my results. So, most of my results are still largely based on +EV (positive expected value) betting. I did, however, manage to start finding and placing a few middle bets. I haven’t hit any yet, but I can certainly see why I have seen them mentioned a few times, often with lots of enthusiasm.

Not surprisingly, there are very few positives to talk about this week. However, overall positive results (just) for NHL betting this week were a bit of a surprise. I’ll take it in what was an otherwise down week.

Amid the downswing, I still managed to consistently beat the CLV and placed a higher number of bets.


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Highlights

My biggest edge for the week was 34.55% on the Jazz-Pistons game. I was looking for Fontecchio to have more than 19.5 PAR. I bet it at 2.65 odds (+165 American) and it closed at 1.99 (-101). I was a bit disappointed to miss that one. I landed a 15% edge on the Timberwolves-Heat game when Mike Conley was under 6.5 assists.

The biggest longshot for the week was the moneyline on the Jazz-Raptors game at 2.9 odds (+190 American). It had a tody 2.28% edge. The Clippers-Mavericks game was the biggest miss for the week when the Mavericks needed more than +5.5 to close the gap with odds of 1.7 (-143 American) with a 2.7% edge.

Results

OddsJam Results for Week 19

A horrible week! I couldn’t land bets at all. I’ll call it variance catching up to me after a few weeks of running above expected returns. The loss of $397 for the week completely wiped out the profit I made last week. The average profit/wager was -9.6%.

I had more time during the week to place more bets, which I was hoping would lead to more profit, but it didn’t play out that way this week. I go in over 220 bets for the week, which is more in line with where I’d like to be.

The Numbers

I still crushed the CLV again this week and beat it 80% of the time. Still high, but I’ve started to recognize that I can’t do much about that. I’ve tried expanding the number of bets I’m taking, but that doesn’t seem to be moving the needle much on my CLV stats. Winning only 45% of the bets placed is below expectations for the odds I’m taking. Even a slight tick up to 46 or 47% could have been the difference between the awful week and the red week that I had.

A negative profit/wager (-9.62%) for the week says it all. At that rate, bad things are going to happen. With so many more bets for the week compared to the last few weeks, turnover was up again. I managed just over $4100 in wagers for the week. I did run into more limits than I was expecting this week with a few of my bets being capped. Not ideal and I didn’t bother to see if it hurt me or saved me. Either way, it is a bit of a worry and I’ll need to consider other books with larger limits as I increase my bankroll.

This week hurt and it will be the first time in a while that I’ll have to adjust my bankroll down. However, I kept the emotions at bay as I’ve been a sports bettor for a long time (and some poker back when I had time), so I have learned to manage that well.

A little perspective is in order here. Even with this horrible week, my numbers since starting this blog back in August are impressive. Over $2k in profit on $33k wagered on 1700+ bets, while beating the CLV 81% of the time and a profit/wager of over 6%. If that isn’t convincing evidence that OddsJam can make you a profitable bettor, I’m not sure what will.

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Hit me up on X (Twitter) @BeyondTheEV if you ever have any questions about anything to do with OddsJam or want to follow along a bit more closely with my journey.

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