OddsJam Betting Results for Week 20 of 52

Welcome to week 20 of a 52-week account of my experience over the year with OddsJam.

You can read about last week here: OddsJam Bettings Results for Week 19 of 52.

Recap

Similar to last week, this week was rough! Two slightly profitable days, but the pullback continued. In my experience, it is very rare to have a two-week run like this. It is variance, which should be expected, and keeping calm and carrying on isn’t always easy. However, can be the nature of +EV (positive expected value) betting. Given the month I had in November (my best month ever), there can’t really be complaints about the past few weeks. Take it in stride and carry on.

I’ll still end the month in positive territory and I’ll have to wait for another shot at making $1k in a month, but that is very much a possibility given the turnover I’m having and the edges I have when placing bets.

Two positives for the week with NFL and Soccer being positives, just.

With the holidays on (family always comes first) I didn’t get as many bets in. I was also surprised to see my CLV (closing line value) drop to 71%, which is the lowest I’ve had in a long time. Perhaps with the break in sports, there was just more variance in the lines.

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“You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take” – Gretzky.

Highlights

The biggest edge I found this week was 17.38%, which I hit when Jalen Green had more than 2.5 three-pointers in the 76ers-Rockets game! I bet it at 2.35 odds (+135 American) and it closed at 2.17 (+117).

The biggest longshot for the week was on Cade Cunningham to have over 4.5 rebounds in the Pistons-Celtics game (the Pistons almost pulled out the win) with odds at 2.45 (+145 American). As a bonus, it had an edge of over 5%. It had a tody 2.28% edge. The Pelicans loss to the Grizzlies was the biggest miss for the week. I took the Pelicans at 1.62 odds (-161 American) with an edge of just over 2%.

Results

A rough week indeed! The loss of $279, although not as bad as last week, was not appreciated. Most days seemed to have at least one or two bets that I missed by a single point/assist/rebound/etc. which, although frustrating, can be the nature of +EV betting. We are still playing the long game and we are certainly winning that war, even if we lost the battle this week.

We know that measuring results from week to week is too short a time frame to give +EV (which most of my best are) a true chance to shine. However, the whole point of this year-long journey is to give you a more nuanced account of what +EV betting can look like over a week.

The Numbers

For the first time in a while, the CLV (closing line value) was only at 71% this week. It is possible that with the holiday break, there was just more movement in the lines. Then again, it could just be the bets I placed were a bit unlucky and the lines moved against them. Worse than last week, I only won 42% of my best. Knowing that the majority of my bets are around the even money mark, that isn’t going to be profitable in any week.

A negative profit/wager (-12.76%) for the week says it all, again worse than last week. I did have fewer bets in for the week with only 117 bets placed, below my target of 200 (holidays and all). Turnover was also down for the week with just under $2200 wagered. I’m still running into caps on player props in more places than I’d like. That could be the limited books I have available in New Zealand as I know many who have access to what looks like the Wild West in the United States where there are a TON of options for great +EV, arbs (arbitrage), and middle bets. Seriously, if you are in the US in a state that has legalized online sports betting, OddsJam is worth its weight in gold!

Similar to last week, I kept an even hand and bet like I’m supposed to without emotion (for some that will take practice). My bankroll took a dent again, but I know that long term it will bounce back, and I’m looking forward to those great weeks/months again.

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Hit me up on X (Twitter) @BeyondTheEV if you ever have any questions about anything to do with OddsJam or want to follow along a bit more closely with my journey.

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