OddsJam Results: January 2024

The start of 2024 with OddsJam didn’t start the way that I would have liked. However, sticking with the process helped overcome a rough first week, finishing the month with another bit of profit. Amazingly, this helped continue my streak and I’ve now had six straight months of profit using OddsJam!

Recap

Rolling into January, I initially continued the slide that started in December. Four of the first six days of the year were in the red, and it created a significant hole to try and climb out of. I was doubtful that I would be able to turn it around and finish the month with any profit.

Then the variance started to turn in my favor. I started to land some more bets. From the 10th to the 20th, there was a steady march of mostly profitable days. The 19th almost derailed that progress, but it was short-lived. Finishing January off with five straight days in the green was just what I needed to close out another profitable month.

As nice as it was to end January in the green, it certainly doesn’t compare to stellar months like September or November. I know those were very favorable months. However, with the growth they provided to my bankroll, I would have hoped to start closing in on the elusive $1k in profit for a month. I’ll keep at it and see what February brings.

In contrast to December, it was almost better to start in a hole and dig myself out, rather than start off flying high only to come crashing down. Value betting (+EV betting) will throw some variance at you whenever it feels like it. As long as you know that you are prepared to weather the storm, you will be profitable long-term.

You can read about my project using OddsJam to become a profitable sports bettor in the Year of OddsJam. You can read more about my experience and the growth of OddsJam in My Two-Year Journey with OddsJam.

General Trend

Looking back to the beginning of this journey which I kicked off in mid-August is helpful for some perspective. My profit per wager is 4.64%, a rather healthy rate of return.

Knowing that this return is across almost six months and 2200 bets, and I have every confidence that OddsJam is providing a rock-solid service that can make you profitable long-term.

For those who aren’t sold on +EV betting, especially the ups/downs in profit, there are a ton of arbitrage bets (arbs) covered by OddsJam, including live arbs. If you are in the United States and have access to Fan Duel, Draft Kings, MGM, and Ceasers, among others, there are insanely profitable opportunities. Seriously, sign up for your free trial and take 35% off your first month with code Beyond35 and take advantage of a great side hustle using OddsJam!

Results

The OddsJam ‘Wordle’ for January 2024 has a lot more modest days than November or December. One good reason for that is that I’m back at work full-time, so I can’t squeeze in those extra bets throughout the day as they pop up.is much less impressive than November. (Note: the 31st doesn’t show red/green because I’m in New Zealand and the timezone throws things off on the last day of the month.)

Until the 9th, you can see that I was in trouble. A significant downturn looked like it was headed my way. A few green days mixed in, but they were not near enough to offset the red.

Almost the exact opposite to December, I bounced back in the second half. There is still some frustration over the number of bets I’m placing where I’m missing by one point/rebound/assist/goal/etc. It feels like it is a disproportionally high number, but that is probably just recency bias and a small sample size.

One of the most challenging aspects of value betting (+EV betting) is that you often do not have a big enough sample size to make statistically sound judgements about a short-term trend you might be seeing. Even if you managed a few hundred bets, that is likely not enough to make sound conclusions.

I have suggested to OddsJam that they add a data explorer so you can have more of a look through some of their vast amounts of data to look for trends that can help you stop some unprofitable bets, and maybe even find bets where you have a bigger advantage than you might think.

The Numbers

I closed out January with a profit of $160, lower than the expected return for the month. My profit per wager was a respectable 2.37%. Yes, I would like that to be higher.

In January, I was beating the closing line value (CLV) 81% of the time. That is a bump up from December, so I’ll take that as a win. My win rate crept up to 52%. A little context is likely needed here. I expected the win rate to creep up as I tightened up a bit and stopped betting some lines with higher odds just to try and cut down on my variance. It is a bit early to tell if it is working. Since I adjusted, I have certainly been more in line with expectations. which is healthy and will lead to profit long term.

I managed to reach a turnover of $6700, which is just over half my December turnover. I was hoping for a higher turnover. Unfortunately, work gets in the way. I take it all in stride and carry on.

I’m still hitting limits on some player props bets at a book that has been very good for me. It isn’t happening too often for the size of bets I’m placing. Still, it is restricting profits a little. I don’t have a lot of options if that is the book where I have an edge. So, I’ll just have to accept it.

NBA was up $150. NHL was up just over $60. NFL was up about $15 (so few games to bet on in the NFL postseason). NCAAB was down just over $70, a stark contrast to being up $200 on NCAAB last month. Stunningly, rebounds were up $300. Given my previous track record with bets on rebounds, you can understand why I was blown away when I stumbled across that. Total points were the worst this month ending up down just over $120.

Goals

As for the goals I set for January (updates in bold):

• Look to place more than 500 bets again. I came up short on this goal, with just under 390 bets placed.
• Place more arbitrage/hedge bets. This is tricky. While I have managed a few arbs, the reality is that working with the books I have available just doesn’t present that many opportunities for these bets.
• Add another book. Cash flow will determine this. I’ve explored a few options, but I haven’t the right fit yet.
• Hit $1k in profit. I’ll keep at this goal until I reach it. I completely missed on this one. I’ll keep at it until I get there.

Some goals for February:

• Look to place more than 400 bets, a slight reduction and probably more realistic.
• Add another book. I’m always looking. As a bonus, it looks like bet365 is back online at OddsJam, which will be great for my bankroll.
• Hit $1k in profit. I’ll keep at this goal until I reach it.

I’m looking forward to keeping up the momentum from the end of January straight into February. Will February finally be the month that I hit $1k in profit for a month? Time will tell.

Contact Me

Questions about how all of this works? Feel free to email me ben@beyondtheev.com You can also hit me up on X (Twitter) @BeyondTheEV if you ever have any questions about anything to do with OddsJam or want to follow along a bit more closely with my journey.

Disclaimer: Links to OddsJam are affiliate links and I am not hiding that. I truly believe in their product and use it daily. Visit OddsJam for a 7-day free trial and see for yourself. Take 35% off your first month with bonus code Beyond35 and explore what OddsJam is all about.