OddsJam Results: March 2024

March started slow and took a very red turn early on. Luckily, the last week was the best week ever and pulled March into solid green territory! OddsJam for the win!

With that record run to finish March, I’ve now been +EV betting (value betting) with OddsJam for eight months. And every one of those months has been profitable. You read that correctly: I’ve had eight straight profitable months using OddsJam.

Recap

March felt like a bit of an unusual month. The first week felt a bit flat and I was already in the red. Nothing new there as not every month starts off pure green with +EV betting. The ups and downs continued for another week, but I was still close enough to profit with half the month to go I wasn’t worried.

Then, in the third full week, the negative variance monster exacted his revenge. I didn’t think it would be possible to turn things around with just over a week to go. I had accepted that my monthly winning streak would come to an end at seven.

Variance had other ideas and I had a huge swing in my favor. I had four days in a week with over $100 profit, including a new personal best. It quickly pulled March into the green and I finished with another profitable month using OddsJam.

I have never experienced such dramatic swings and I know mathematically they will be rare. However, sticking to the plan and continuing to place +EV bets was the key to turning it around. Trust the process with +EV betting and long-term, the results will follow!

You can read about my project using OddsJam to become a profitable sports bettor in the Year of OddsJam. You can read more about my experience and the growth of OddsJam in My Two-Year Journey with OddsJam.

Continuing Trend

Consistency along the journey continues to be relatively steady: profit/wager of 4.2% and beating the closing line value 80% of the time. Both of those point to long-term profit and are solid numbers.

In that respect, March was a bit off. Even though it was profitable, returns were down a bit at 1.8% profit/wager. So, I am still expecting some positive variance to pull my long-term profit/wager up to 4.5% which is closer to my long-term average.

Some days it really does feel like +EV betting is similar to the stock market. Trying to time when the market (sports market or stock market) will have a very good day is not a winning strategy. Staying in the market long-term (making lots of +EV bets daily), we know to expect solid, consistent returns.

For those who aren’t sold on +EV betting, especially the ups/downs in profit, there are a ton of arbitrage bets (arbs) covered by OddsJam, including live arbs. You can read more about arbitrage betting in this article Profitable Arbitrage Betting.

If you are in the United States and have access to Fan Duel, Draft Kings, MGM, and Ceasers, etc., there are insanely profitable opportunities. Seriously, sign up for your free trial and take 35% off your first month with code Beyond35 and take advantage of a great side hustle using OddsJam!

Results

My OddsJam ‘Wordle’ for March shows just how much variance you can see week-to-week. But month-to-month, you will generally see solid results!

It was great to see even more days in March than in February with green days over $100 profit. It is a reflection of my growing bankroll and the number of bets I managed to get in. However, it is still worth noting as it is a good sign.

I was able to get a lot more bets in during the last week of March. Our youngest was home sick from daycare, so I had to be here too. That gave me more time to bet while our little one was napping and recovering.

Knowing that more bets will lead to more profits and help reduce variance, I make the most of my opportunities to get in extra bets.

Besides setting a new record for daily winnings, March also set a record for daily losses. Fortunately, the variance evened out, and I had yet another green month with OddsJam. Have I mentioned that I’ve had eight straight profitable months? It just sounds great every time I hear it!

The Numbers

Profit, CLV, and Win Rate

March closed with $205 in profit. Knowing how March started, I am happy with that result. My profit margin per wager was down significantly to 1.8%. Not great, but a steady 1.8% return per month can really add up.

I’m still crushing the closing line value (CLV)! I beat the CLV 80% of the time in March, a real indication of how good OddsJam is at finding a consistent edge. CLV is one of, if not the best indicators in +EV betting (value betting). If you are making +EV bets, knowing that you are beating the CLV means you know that you have an edge.

The win rate for the month was right at 50%. I would have expected this to be a little higher based on the odds I was getting on my bets. But, you can’t win them all.

Turnover and Profitable Leagues

My turnover jumped up again at just over $11,300. Two reasons I can see for that. First, my bankroll is increasing, so I expect individual bets to be bigger over time. Second, that week home where I could get in more bets. It is amazing what happens when you are home at the right time and can place so many extra bets.

I am still hitting limits on player props at one of my main books. Last month I mentioned that it probably wasn’t holding me back. However, this is starting to be a drag on profit. I’m getting great edgees at this book and my bankroll growth is pushing up my bet sizes. As my best sizes have moved up, the number of bets that are limited has also increased.

NBA player props drove most of my profit for the month. I was up $335 on my NBA bets. NHL also had a respectable month with a profit of $105. The drag came from NCAAB, down $90, and College Baseball, down $125.

College baseball specifically hurt. It was the first time I’ve had College Baseball come up in the feed. I’ve noticed that it hasn’t come up since. I suspect it will have a higher variance like NCAAB. I’ll see if it makes its way back into the feed,

There were no standout types of bets this week. All the different markets were within reason, with nothing too dramatic. I’ll take that as a positive as big fluctuations always feel a bit strange.

Goals

A review of the goals I set for March (updates in bold):

• Aim for 400+ bets. This seems realistic, but I’d be happy with over 300 again. I crushed this, with the help of the last week, and had over 600 bets.
• Look at existing books with low funds to reload and get going again. No progress here. I’m not seeing a whole lot of bets outside my main books. It might make more sense to look for other books entirely.
• Hit $1k in profit. I’ll keep at this goal until I reach it. Another miss. Expected value for the month was around $400, so hitting $1k would have been a huge swing of positive variance.

Some goals for April:

• Aim for another 400+ bets, but settle for 300. This could be tricky with the NBA and NHL almost done with their regular seasons. Unless I start to see more MLB bets, this will be hard to reach.
• Add some extra books to my feed to see which books might be a good fit for MLB season.
• Hit $1k in profit.

April betting has started and I’m hopeful that I can keep the momentum of the end of March going.

I’ve now had eight straight profitable months and I’d love to make it nine. It would be even better if month nine set a new profit record! I’ve continued to build my solid track record with OddsJam, so both are very possible!

Contact Me

Questions about how all of this works? Feel free to email me ben@beyondtheev.com You can also hit me up on X (Twitter) @BeyondTheEV if you ever have any questions about anything to do with OddsJam or want to follow along a bit more closely with my journey.

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