OddsJam Results: April 2024

April started with a rough day ending up down $140. Little did I know, that red would quickly be erased and turn to green for the rest of the month.

April finished solidly in the green and marked the ninth straight profitable month using OddsJam!

There were no record-setting weeks like there were in March (OddsJam Results: March 2024). However, long-term consistent profit is now the expectation from month to month using OddsJam!

Finishing April as the ninth straight profitable month was great. Even better was that it was a solid month, in the top three with only February and November being better.

I honestly didn’t expect to be in the green every month when I started this journey and the fact that I am is a reflection of the consistent edge found using OddsJam!

Recap

With April starting down $140 on the first day, I certainly had my concerns. However, I’ve been at this long enough now to know that one day in a month, even a week within a month, is not enough time to set a trend. Working through variance is always a thing with +EV betting. Sticking with the process is always key. I’ve gone on and on about that in the past. It is really easy when you are experiencing positive variance. It can be hard, initially, when you are experiencing negative variance. Trust me, trust the math, and trust OddsJam and you’ll get through it!

For the rest of April, the overall total stayed in the green for almost the entire month. For a good stretch, the overall profit for the month was just in the green and nothing to write home about. However, in the last few days, everything really pulled through and I ended up with my third-best month ever using OddsJam. (Best Month: November. Second Best: February.)

I’ve recently read that in the stock market (the S&P 500 specifically) if you had missed the 30 best days over the past 30 years, your returns would look very different than when you include the best 30 days. The message is that you can’t time the market. In sports betting, specifically +EV betting, I’m finding the exact same thing. There are ups and downs, but you never know which day will give you a huge win and which will be a negative variance nightmare.

Week two in April was mixed, ending the week with a slight profit. But weeks 3 and 4 were great weeks with five out of seven days each week in profit. That doesn’t always ensure a profitable week, but it helps.

April finished with solid results and it was a stark change from the rollercoaster finish in March.

You can read about my project using OddsJam to become a profitable sports bettor in the Year of OddsJam. You can read more about my experience and the growth of OddsJam in My Two-Year Journey with OddsJam.

Variance: Month to Month vs Long-Term

Month to month, results can be very different. I was running above the long-term profit per wager in April at 5.3%, a noticeable difference compared to the long-term 4.3%. That showed through in the closing line value, which was 85%.

I’ve been at this long enough to know that one month won’t significantly change my profit/wager, CLV, or win rate. Still, seeing the consistency and long-term profits thanks to OddsJam is very reassuring.

For those who aren’t sold on +EV betting, especially the ups/downs in profit, there are a ton of arbitrage bets (arbs) covered by OddsJam, including live arbs. You can read more about arbitrage betting in this article Profitable Arbitrage Betting.

If you are in the United States and have access to Fan Duel, Draft Kings, MGM, and Ceasers, etc., there are insanely profitable opportunities. Seriously, sign up for your free trial and take 35% off your first month with code Beyond35 and take advantage of a great side hustle using OddsJam!

Results

My OddsJam ‘Wordle’ for April is great! I had 19 green days and only 11 red.

The four green days over $100, including $195 on the 29th, were mostly offset by three red days with over $100 in losses. But you still can’t argue with the end result!

With MLB now underway, I’ve managed to get in more bets again. Player Props really are the way to go with +EV betting as this is a volume business.

More bets also help to reduce variance and increase turnover. With the long-run profit/wager over 4%, the more I can turn over my bankroll, the better.

Nine straight months of profit using OddsJam! I’m not sure I’ll ever get tired of hearing that.

The Numbers

Profit, CLV, and Win Rate

April finished with $560 in profit. The few days at the end, especially the 29th, helped push the total from ok to very good!

I handily beat the closing line value at 85% this month. That is higher than the long-term trend of 80%, which is high enough already. Closing line value (CLV) is the best predictor of long-term profit with +EV betting. So, consistently beating the CLV 80% of the time or more is a sure sign of profitability. OddsJam does make it so easy to find that consistent edge.

The win rate for the month was right at 50%, just like last month. This is inline with expectations given the number of bets I placed and the odds I placed them at.

Turnover and Profitable Leagues

The turnover for the month dropped a bit compared to last month ending at just over $10.5k over 416 bets. With my increasing bankroll, I expect turnover to creep up over time. I’m already starting to see bet sizes increase, so turnover can’t be far behind.

The limits on player prop bets are still frustrating. Luckily, my MLB limits seem to be higher at one book that I’m using more often again. Long may it continue. Finding more books with a lot of lines would be a way around that. I’ll see what I can find out from OddsJam support – always worth asking them for info as they know their business.

Unsurprisingly, player props drove profit again this month. Player threes and strikeouts were the top two earners this month.

NBA was up big again with just under $440 in profit. MLB came in second at $280. All the other leagues were in the red. Nothing significant, but tennis was the worst dragging me down $70.

I bet on a few College Baseball games last month and it hurt. They didn’t come up in my feed in April, so no harm was done. I would like to see them back in my feed as there are just so many games to get money on.

Goals

A review of the goals I set for April (updates in bold):

• Aim for another 400+ bets, but settle for 300. This could be tricky with the NBA and NHL almost done with their regular seasons. Unless I start to see more MLB bets, this will be hard to reach. Goal reached! I had 416 bets in for the month. And there are a ton of MLB props to bet on.
• Add some extra books to my feed to see which books might be a good fit for MLB season. I didn’t add any books, but an existing book had a ton of MLB player props, so I’ve been betting on those. And another book has started to pop up in the feed again, giving me even more opportunities.
• Hit $1k in profit. I’m still looking to hit this goal.

Some goals for May:

• Place 400+ bets again (500 would be ideal).
• Look at my existing books first for more MLB bets. But, I’ll keep looking for more books to add.
• Hit $1k in profit.

May betting is underway and I’m already well into the green. I’m hoping that I’ll be able to make May my 10th straight profitable month! With OddsJam finding the bets, I’m very confident that I’ll get there.

Contact Me

Questions about how all of this works? Feel free to email me ben@beyondtheev.com You can also hit me up on X (Twitter) @BeyondTheEV if you ever have any questions about anything to do with OddsJam or want to follow along a bit more closely with my journey.

Disclaimer: Links to OddsJam are affiliate links and do not change the cost to you. I truly believe in their product and use it daily. Visit OddsJam for a 7-day free trial and see for yourself. Take 35% off your first month with bonus code Beyond35 and explore what OddsJam is all about.