June finally broke the streak! June is the first month in the past 11 of using OddsJam where I have finished a month with a loss!
You read that correctly: Using OddsJam I had 10 straight profitable months, and June broke that streak!
June started off in the red. Five of the first six days were red. That is not unusual. Some months start with a few green days and then stay in the green for the rest of the month. And I’ll be honest, those months make it really easy to stick to the system and keep putting the bets in because you see your bankroll keep increasing.
It is months like June that start to test you a bit, especially after May when I had a few runs of red. You might get a little bit of doubt and pull back a bit in your betting. (Pro Tip: Make sure you adjust your bankroll settings in OddsJam every few days, up or down, to make sure your bet sizes are correct.) Stick with it, and push through the negative variance because better days are ahead.
It wasn’t until the 17th, 18th, and 19th that I finally felt like June was going to continue to streak and get me to 11 straight months of profit with OddsJam. Over those three days, I went from being down $168 to up $25. In the end, it just didn’t work out.
One thing that may have changed my fortunes was a long-anticipated and extended vacation. We left on the 28th and of course, were getting a lot of things organized up to that point. If I’m honest, getting the bets in over the month of June was tricky. However, I won’t use that as an excuse. I’ve had similar volume in previous months and they turned out great.
Ending the streak at 10 is fine with me. If you had told me at the start of this journey that I would hit a streak of 10 straight months of profit before having a single month in the red, I don’t think I would have believed it. Yet, here I am with the proof. How good is OddsJam? It is more than good, it is great!
You can read about my project using OddsJam to become a profitable sports bettor in the Year of OddsJam. You can read more about my experience and the growth of OddsJam in My Two-Year Journey with OddsJam.
Recap
Starting June with five of six in the red was not great. I finished June with 15 days in the red and 11 in the green. Now, the number of days that are red or green isn’t the best indicator of long-term profit with OddsJam. If you are playing longer odds, you’ll have more red days than green, but you will still come out on top in the long-run.
Four red days in the middle of the month were not great. However, those four days were not significantly negative. They were well within reason and on most days, as happens often, a single bet going the other way would have turned a red day into a green day.
June was also a month when I was trying to get more player pros on MLB. Specifically, I was putting smaller wagers on player hits and player runs. I’m not sure how robust those markets are, but one of the books I use where I’d like to get in more bets was always coming up in the bet feed with these bets. So, I figured I should see what could happen. In the end, I didn’t stick with it. I might need to revisit that decision when the next MLB season rolls around because I know that I don’t have enough bets on those markets to even out the variance.
So, the steak is over. I’m off for a vacation with my family and will pick up when I get back. I’ll be looking to start a new streak to see if I can break my current record of 10 straight profitable months with OddsJam!
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Results
My OddsJam ‘Wordle’ for June looks like a lot of other months, except there isn’t a nice bit of green in the top right corner.
Most of the bets for the month are on MLB, but I did manage to sneak in a few on some NBA, NHL, soccer and tennis.
First-inning total runs and player-outs were solid bets this month.
The Numbers
Profit, CLV, and Win Rate
June ended up with a loss of $215. That isn’t going to hit my bankroll too hard, but it is strange not finishing in the green. My profit margin per wager was negative 4.3%.
So, even though June ended in the red, it wasn’t as far in the red as my best months (November and February) are in the green.
I still beat the closing line value at a rate of 78% for the month, which is well within the range needed to be a highly profitable sports bettor. My long-run average for beating the closing line is 80%, so June was not that far off.
My win rate dipped a bit for the second month in a row. For June my win rate was 48%. I’m curious if it had ticked up to 49% or 50% if June would have finished up in the green. That 1% or 2% difference in win rate might be all it takes to turn a red month into a green one.
Turnover and Profitable Leagues
My turnover was down again. That isn’t surprising given that I headed out on vacation as mentioned above.
Turnover for the month was just over $5k on just over 189 bets. Both of those numbers are lower than I’d like. As I mentioned last month, I can only bet on what is coming up in the feed and I’m not going to foolishly force more bets.
Finding more books at the moment would be nice and I’ll eventually get there, but that is proving to be difficult. I’ll stick with it and keep looking until I find something.
As mentioned above, the first-inning total and player outs were two highlights for the week pulling in a respectable amount.
NBA and tennis (WTA) were the most profitable leagues for me this month, with MLB being the worst. The worst of the worst was the player runs props where I lost over $200 for the month. Hitting on a few more bets would have easily taken me into the green, but I’ll have to wait until next month.
Goals
Goals for June (updates in bold):
- Place 300+ bets. This would be a step up from May and is probably more realistic with only MLB on the go. I missed this goal by a wide margin. I only made 189 bets for the month, my lowest in a long time. I’ll need to look at more MLB player prop bets and may have to accept more variance.
- Review the less ‘mainstream’ MLB markets to see if there are more bets worth adding. I did get more player prop bets in on hits and runs and outs. However, it wasn’t profitable this month. I’ll continue to explore options here.
- Hit $1k in profit. Not even close!
Some goals for August (I’m away on an extended vacation and will miss all of July):
- Increase my bet volume. Getting above 250 will be my target. Given my last few months, I think that is more realistic.
- Start a new green streak. After the first red month in the past 11, getting back into the green is an easy goal to set.
- Hit $1k in profit. I’m keeping this goal until I hit it.
So, how long will my next monthly green streak be? I don’t know, but I’d love to beat 10 months in a row.
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