A Year of Profitable Sports Betting: Halftime Update

A little over six months ago I began a year-long journey to become a long-term profitable sports bettor. So, it is time for the halftime update on A Year of Sports Betting on OddsJam.

Six months of daily betting using OddsJam to consistently find an edge over the books and I am confident that anyone can become a profitable long-term sports bettor. Through thousands of bets, profit my profit has continued to grow.

Here are my reflections on those six months of betting.

A Strong Start

Through the first few weeks, at the tail end of the MLB regular season, things were looking good. I wasn’t getting in many bets as only MLB was on, but I was winning on a lot of pitcher player props. It was a nice edge and it was paying well. Positive variance certainly gave me a warm and fuzzy start down this road.

That continued from mid-August, when I officially started this journey, through September. September even finished off with eight profitable days over the last nine days of the month. That included a new single-day record for me at the time $175 in profit. September finished so strong that I was starting to feel invincible.

A Few Wobbles

October rolled in and I was looking to continue the very tidy month I had in September. Unfortunately, it didn’t run smoothly. Negative variance started to pull me back to reality. That is a lesson that all +EV (value) bettors must accept: over a large enough sample, variance will even out.

The evening out may happen week to week if you are getting in enough bets (more than I’m getting in) or it might take months. Eventually, you will pull out of a downswing, just like you will eventually come down from an upswing.

I didn’t slow down with my betting in October. In fact, with the NHL and NBA regular seasons getting underway, there were more bets to be made. A lot more bets.

Remarkably, even with some negative variance, I was able to turn a profit in October.

A Volume Business

Value (+EV) betting is a volume business. If you are consistently finding edges, then you would ideally be able to place a lot of bets. The more bets you can place, the better.

With the sportsbooks available to me, the time difference from here in New Zealand to the North American sports (MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL, NCAA), two young daughters under four, and a full-time job, it is hard to get in anywhere near the volume I’d like to. This is not a complaint, just reality. I only mention it so readers who are considering profitable sports betting as a side hustle recognize where some of the challenges might be. (Side note: this is why I ignore the subscription fees when looking at overall results as I know most others, especially American sports bettors, would have way more opportunities than I would.)

I can usually fit in about 40 minutes a day on sports betting, depending on other commitments. If you are in the US and can spare some time before games, you’ll be able to place way more pre-game arbs and +EV bets than I ever can. If you can manage time during live games, the potential for arbs and +EV bets go way up. Seriously, if I was in that position, I estimate my betting volume would easily double.

November Crush

November was the first full month with both NBA and NHL games on the schedule every night. With so many games on and a lot of positive variance, I was able to absolutely crush it in November! It easily became my best month ever in sports betting. I set three new personal bests for daily profit.

Yet there was a bit of turbulence to finish November. If I had just avoided betting in the last five days, I would have hit a tidy profit of over $1k (a goal I have yet to reach). I was happy to settle for over $800 in profit.

Keep It Going

I managed to keep it going to start December, even setting another best day ever. By the halfway mark of December, I was certain I would be able to close out with $1k in profit and finally hit that target.

Unfortunately, December was a game of two halves. The second half of December was brutal! Only four of the final 15 days were in the green. It took what looked like a sure new monthly high and trounced it and I was lucky to escape the month in profit.

At this point, I was slightly concerned and was giving real thought to stopping the whole experiment. However, I’m still writing so I clearly decided to continue. I started to look a bit more closely at what OddsJam lines were telling me. Rather than just blindly accepting the edge, I started to look for more of a cushion on the lines when compared to some sharp books, like Pinnacle.

Looking into what the lines could tell me compared to the sharps took some time. The reality is that I know OddsJam works long-term and I trust their massive amounts of data to give me an edge. I wouldn’t be talking about my positive experience with them if I didn’t think it was a great product. Looking into the cushion was more about reducing the variance I had been dealing with.

Welcome 2024!

To start 2024, I was really looking to increase the volume of bets. With a bit of time off from work and lots of time with my two little ones, I was able to balance my commitments a little easier and not feel guilty about spending time sports betting. But the bets weren’t there. I quickly learned that timing really can dictate a lot about how many bets you can make. When books release and adjust lines can vary wildly.

January started slowly and it felt like the second half of December might repeat. Through the first half, I was in the red. That was a change as I had previously been the green through the halfway point of a month.

Luckily, variance stated two swing back in my favour. Momentum started to build. Even though I wasn’t getting in the volume that I would have liked, I was slowly and steadily climbing back. Finishing January with four straight days in the green helped secure another profitable month of betting with OddsJam.

February

February has started on a positive again, continuing the winning streak from the end of January for three more days in the green.

Being back at the office full-time (I’ve been back for a while) is certainly limiting the time available for betting. Fortunately, the timing is working out well and I’m consistently finding +EV bets with OddsJam and turning over enough bets to be profitable month to month.

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Learn more about my journey with a Year of OddsJam or the evolution of OddsJam over the past few years My Two Year Journey with OddsJam.

Lessons Learned

For those who have read my First Quarter Update, you’ll recognize some of these lessons learned. There is a reason for that: they are good lessons and worth repeating.

First and foremost: Making positive expected value (+EV) bets found using OddsJam works!

Second: Trust the numbers. You may not agree with some odds and think about playing a hunch or going with your gut. You can’t do that with +EV betting. Provided the margin is good enough, the market width is within reason, and it is close enough to the start of the game … you should place the bet.

Third: Variance is a thing and you will have to deal with it. Accepting that in a downswing can be tricky, but stick with it and the law of large numbers will pull you out. If you are using the Kelly Criteria for bet sizing, it will save you when you do hit negative variance.

What Next?

Keep looking for that magic month where I top $1k in profit.

Try and find that elusive book that has a lot of +EV bets in OddsJam that isn’t capping your bets. I’m currently finding that a bit hard and know that my profit would be (substantially) bigger if some of my bets were not capped well below what the Kelly bet size dictates.

I’m very much looking forward to the next quarter results and then finishing up the year-long journey with OddsJam.

Thanks for reading.

X (Twitter)

Hit me up on X (Twitter) @BeyondTheEV if you ever have any questions about anything to do with OddsJam or want to follow along a bit more closely with my journey.

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Are you ready to be a profitable sports bettor?

Start a 7-day FREE trial

Use code Beyond35 for 35% off your first month!