OddsJam Betting Results for December 2023

My year-long journey with OddsJam has had its ups and downs. However, December went up like a rocket, then dropped like a stone. I still managed to pull off a profit for the month, which is always a positive. After a month like November, it was a little frustrating, but that is the nature of positive expected value (+EV) sports betting. (If you are curious about my results from previous months, you can find them here August, September, and October.)

So, after setting a new record in November, For December, I still managed to beat the sluggish October. However, with so many more bets being placed in December combined with the growth in bankroll from November, I was expecting better results in December. For December, I was starting with a bankroll of about $4200, but only managed a profit/wager of just over 1.3%. Still positive, but not anywhere near the level of edges I was placing.

You can read about my project using OddsJam to become a profitable sports bettor in the Year of OddsJam. You can read more about my experience and the growth of OddsJam in My Two-Year Journey with OddsJam.

Going back to the beginning of this journey which I kicked off in mid-August is helpful for some perspective. After such a significant amount of positive variance, there was bound to be a reversion to the mean. That meant either a slowdown in profits over a longer period or quick negative variance, as I saw in the second half of December.

A slowdown over a longer period is probably easier to manage and keep a level head about. However, you need to be prepared to deal with either without going on tilt. Positive expected value is a long-term game and even measuring month to month can be too short a time frame. Typically I’d be looking for a sample sized in the thousands to even out the variance.

Coincidentally, if you look at the expected returns and my actual returns since starting this project in mid-August, I am almost spot on where I should be to the end of December with a steady return in line with the edges I am placing.

For those who aren’t sold on +EV betting, especially the ups/downs in profit, there are a ton of arbitrage bets (arbs) covered by OddsJam, including live arbs. If you are in the United States and have access to Fan Duel, Draft Kings, MGM, and Ceasers, among others, there are insanely profitable opportunities. Seriously, sign up for your free trial and take 35% off your first month with code Beyond35 and take advantage of a great side hustle using OddsJam!

Results

My OddsJam ‘Wordle’ for December 2023 is much less impressive than November. (Note: the 31st doesn’t show red/green because I’m in New Zealand and the timezone throws things off on the last day of the month.)

Up until the 16th, I was on a great run with some red days, but mostly green days. And the profit on those green days was more than making up for the red days. It looked like I was on pace for another record-setting month and would probably top $1k in profit. Even if the second half of December was break-even, December would have been a great month.

Then I hit a two-week slump to pull me right back to reality. Missing on a lot of bets. Mostly red days, and not just a little pullback, a significant pullback. Over the next two weeks, two individual days were worse than any other red days that I’ve had. It stings a bit, but you have to keep going with the plan and put in the bets. Not betting isn’t going to get you green days – it will avoid red, but that is a bit short-sighted with +EV betting.

December ended with a profit of just under $180 and a profit per wager of 1.34%. If I look at it over the last two months, I’m averaging just under $500 profit per month. Looking at it on that bigger timeframe also means a sample size of about 1300 rather than just 600. The statistical advantage that is +EV betting plays out over a lot more bets than 600. Even 1300 is not a large sample size.

For December, I was beating the closing line value (CLV) 76% of the time, which is healthy and will lead to profit long term. My win rate was 49%. Win rates always need context. For the wagers I’m placing this is well within reason as most of my bets are placed at about even odds.

However, if you are only winning on the favorites and never the underdogs and still end up at a 49% win rate, you are not going to be profitable. I had a turnover of over $13k for the month, meaning I turned over my bankroll about three times. Using my long-run profit/wager of about 5%, and I would have expected about $650 in profit for that amount of turnover.

Like November, I am still hitting limits with a few books when placing player prop bets. It doesn’t look specifically like I am being limited, although that is a possibility, but more of just the books limits on those lines. If I am being limited, there isn’t much that can be done about it now. I do try and throw in the occasional parlay and a few -EV bets now and then, but limits with +EV betting are inevitable … eventually. In the mean time, I have tried to place fewer bets with that book.

NHL was up just under $60. NFL was up about $45 as well. NCAAB was up over $220. These were all doing much better in the first half of the month. NBA finished down $160 with player points and player PRA both being significantly negative even though they are very positive long term.

I did manage to add one more book for the month. That hasn’t worked out so well. Even though I did my homework to find a book where OddsJam had been showing a lot of +EV bets, they seem to have dried up a bit and my win rate there so far has not been going.

I’m also trying to take full advantage of the deposit bonuses at new books and at the same time not withdraw from any of the books I’m using, especially if I’ve been successful, so I have to wait to deposit until I know I’ve got the cash on hand and all my other obligations have been taken care of (this is a side hustle after all).

Goals

As for the goals I set for December (updates in bold):

• Keep placing a lot of bets – aim for more than 500 again. Done! Over 600 bets in for the month.
• Place even more arbitrage bets. This is starting to feel like a solid option for guaranteed returns. A work in progress. I’m still not getting in many arbs simply because they are available with the books I’m using. Still, I did manage to place more in December than I have before.
• Add another book. This will depend on cash flow as I’m avoiding withdrawals and just trying to grow bankrolls everywhere. Done, I added one book. A bit of a snag with the deposit bonus that customer service didn’t help with. I’ve put that to the side, but it is frustrating to have done everything right and still not get the deposit bonus.
• Hit $1k in profit. I don’t have a lot of control this, but it would be a wonderful milestone. Maybe arbs can help more with this than I think. Not even close. I likely would have needed more turnover or continued to get the high profit/wager rates, but both of these are unrealistic.

Some goals for January:

• Look to place more than 500 bets again.
• Place more arbitrage/hedge bets.
• Add another book. Cash flow will determine this.
• Hit $1k in profit. I’ll keep at this goal until I reach it.

I’m looking forward to a bounce back in January and hope the next monthly update reflects that!

Contact Me

Questions about how all of this works? Feel free to email me ben@beyondtheev.com You can also hit me up on X (Twitter) @BeyondTheEV if you ever have any questions about anything to do with OddsJam or want to follow along a bit more closely with my journey.

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