OddsJam Betting Results for November 2023

So, at this point, I’ve provided updates from August, September, and October. September was my best month EVER in sports betting with over $500 in profit on a modest bankroll of about $3k. That was the case until November! There were a lot more matches to wager on and, with that opportunity, came greater profits. After October’s minimal 1% profit margin per wager, November finished at 6% – a significant increase. Combine that with so many more wagers made, and you can see why November is now the best month EVER using OddsJam!

You can read about my project using OddsJam to become a profitable sports bettor in the Year of OddsJam. You can read more about my experience and the growth of OddsJam in My Two-Year Journey with OddsJam.

The journey so far has had a modest August, a great September, a flat October, and a November to remember. This fits with the big picture that variance of positive expected value (+EV) betting has up/down swings. The very nature of +EV betting is long-term profit, with more bets eventually leading to higher profits. By using the Kelly Criterion for bet sizing, you can grow that bankroll significantly with +EV bets. However, OddsJam also includes other tools to help grow your bankroll. Arbitrage (arb) is a guaranteed positive return on every single bet. OddsJam offers so many tools and I keep learning as I go through this journey.

Results

Here is my OddsJam ‘Wordle’ for November 2023. (Note: the 30th should be red too, only about -$10, but being in New Zealand throws off the last day of a month. OddsJam knows about this issue and will find a solution.)

As you can see, I had a great start to November with three of the first five days being fantastic for the bankroll. I was over $1k in profit for the month after the 24th, but had a pull-back to finish the month. It still gives a target to reach over $1k in a month, but I’ll have to try again in December. Having NFL, NBA, and NHL all in full swing for the month made it much easier to find consistent edges. That will continue for a few more months, and I hope the tidy profits do too.

I ended November with a profit of over $800 on a bankroll that started the month at just over $3k. My profit margin per wager was a healthy 6%, which is probably slightly above where it should be based on the edges I was placing. With a flat October, and outsized profits in September and November, my bankroll has grown enough that I should be looking at profits of around $650/month from +EV betting based on my turnover and the edges I’m betting – depending on variance. I’m still beating the CLV at a very high rate of 84% for November even as I am putting in more bets with a smaller edge. The win rate is 52% is higher than expected based on the edges that I’m placing and would account for a slightly higher than expected return for November. I placed over 700 bets for the month doubling October’s 335. Placing more bets should also help smooth out the variance.

I am still hitting limits with a few books when placing player prop bets. It is frustrating as the edge on many of those bets are very favorable and could have increased profits even more. I’m sure I’ll appreciate that when I’m in a down-swing.

I commented back in October’s update that I’d like to avoid the big swings that I had in September, where the profit was over $500. November does not fall into that category. I placed more than four times as many bets in November and the profit margin per wager wasn’t the insane 17%, but 6%. This is my long-term trend, so it is in line with expectations.

NHL was up over $200. NFL was up over $200 as well. NCAAB was up just over $50 – a bit disappointing given the number of bets I’m placing. NBA was on fire again with $350 in profit. So many bets to place on NBA and some wonderful edges. No single bet type was a significant drag for the month, which is always great to see.

I’m starting to expand the list of books I’m using again and this is helping spread things around. This is good as it will help avoid being limited quickly and it should open up the opportunity for more bets and more profits. This is still a result of the books I have available in New Zealand and would NOT be a problem in the USA, Canada, Australia or Europe where there are simply more books available. I’ll keep looking for books that are available to me.

Goals

As for the goals I set for November (updates in bold):

• Keep placing more bets – aiming for about 500 for the month. (Crushed it with over 700 bets!)
• Place more arbitrage bets. With the different currencies at the different books, I have decided that it may be easier to place some of these as hedge bets as working with multiple currencies is a challenge. It changes the nature of the bet. However, I believe this will still help boost the bankroll. (A work in progress. I’ve got more arb bets in and have figured out a few things that I think will help – like turning on email for a few arb filters. I’ll need to reload at one book to make it even easier.)
• Do not worry about middle bets. The +EV and arbitrage bets are great and are taking up enough time so I’ll leave middle bets for now. (Easy and done.)
• Add at least one more book. (Done, but not without issues. The book I’ve added isn’t showing the same odds as OddsJam. I’ve let them know as the weekly re-load bonuses offered would be great to work on.)
• Contact OddsJam about the filters for soccer as this could be a nice addition and some of the international books have fewer limits on soccer. (Done. Still a work in progress as of today. I really do hope that they get this sorted as internationally this would be a real boost with so many different leagues to work with – I’ve done very well on soccer in the past.)

Some goals for December:

• Keep placing a lot of bets – aim for more than 500 again.
• Place even more arbitrage bets. This is starting to feel like a solid option for guaranteed returns.
• Add another book. This will depend on cash flow as I’m avoiding withdrawals and just trying to grow bankrolls everywhere.
• Hit $1k in profit. I don’t have a lot of control this, but it would be a wonderful milestone. Maybe arbs can help more with this than I think.

NBA and NHL are offering up a lot of games. As a bonus, I get a bit more time off in December. Of course, it is summer in New Zealand, so I won’t be spending all my time putting in bets.

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