OddsJam Betting Results for Week 14 of 52

Welcome to week fourteen of a 52-week account of my experience over the year with OddsJam.

You can read about last week here: OddsJam Bettings Results for Week 13 of 52.

Recap

Week 14 was a flat week, but you get those with sports betting. It is all part of the journey. Friday was not particularly kind and dragged down what was looking like a good week.

I didn’t manage to get as many bets in this week. That might be down to timing and when I was looking at what +EV and arb bets were available. Or it might just be that there weren’t as many discrepancies at the books this week. To be honest, life gets in the way as well and I had a few sick days over the past week.

I’ve also been looking at longer-term trends with some of the markets that I seem to be consistently losing. In those instances, which account for enough bets I have been more critical when placing the bets. Specifically, looking for higher edges and narrower widths on the markets. It is hard to make those decisions to pull back on any market because my sample size is not nearly big enough. I think it is worth looking at these trends from time to time over a longer timeframe.

Placing some early bets on NFL games has been something that has been helpful. Even snagging a few extra arbs is boosting the bankroll – free money just for placing the bets is always good. I’d like to get more of these early bets in, but they just don’t seem to appear as often as I would like.

However, I managed even fewer NFL bets this week and was well short of the 30+ I was looking to make this week. I’m not sure why I’m not seeing more NFL bets. I’ll try looking earlier in the day and closer to game time to see if more bets pop up.

NBA bets resulted in a loss for the week, which is disappointing as I know that NBA is generally my most profitable league by a wide margin. Still, I know I can’t win every week on NBA and given the run I’ve been on, variance was bound to catch up with me.

Looking at the other leagues, NFL was the only bright spot for the week. All other leagues this week ended up in the red. This is a very rare occurrence and I’ll just ride out the variance of the next few days/weeks.

The high edges continued this week, as seems to be the norm, with plenty at 5%, 7%, 10%, even 20% or more.

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Highlights

The biggest edge I found for the week was Jarrett Allen to have over 9.5 rebounds in the Pistons-Cavaliers game at a 56% edge. Yes, a 56% +EV bet! The book had the odds at 3.15 (+215 American) and the CLV was 2.15 (+115 American). I missed this time, but you don’t see many quite that high.

The biggest edge I hit for the week was Mitchell Robinson to have over 9.5 rebounds in the Knicks-Hawks game at an 18% edge.

The longest odds I hit for the week was the Packers-Steelers game, with Najee Harris getting over 2.5 receptions (he had 3) at 2.6 odds (+160 American).

The worst miss for the week was the Lightning-Blues game. I had the over 6 at 1.75 odds (-133 American). Not bad for the worst miss. I wasn’t counting on the Lightning to get shut out.

Results

You’ll notice a change here. After I recently posted an update on the first quarter (First Quarter) of this journey using OddsJam, I made the decision to post real dollar figures. This was to reflect that I am working with a much smaller bankroll than many who post online about incredible profits (and good on them). They are generally working with a substantially larger bankroll. I’m the proof that starting with a bankroll of $3k making positive expected value (+EV) and arbitrage bets is profitable using OddsJam.

I’m down slightly this week, with a $17 loss overall.

For the week, I’ve only placed 171 bets, which is a significant drop from the 277 last week. This is below where I’d like to be. However, it is still within reason and I’ll take it given the busy week I’ve had. After my reflection last week about the crazy swings throughout the live action as results come in, I’ve stopped looking so much at the results as they come in and just keep looking for more +EV and arb bets to make.

A couple of arbs again this week. They do provide a nice boost, especially when they are with books where I have a bit more cash and where I’ve been placing larger bets.

The Numbers

I beat the CLV 90% of the time this week. Even when I’ve started to take bets with smaller edges and some earlier bets where I can. I won 50% of the bets for the week, just below where I’d expect to be based on the odds I took. The profit margin per wager for this week was -0.51%, so nothing extreme in terms of the loss. My turnover for the week was $3250, so the majority of my bankroll. Ideally, with a few more bets to make, I’d be turning over my entire bankroll at least once a week.

Sweet November

November is still overwhelmingly positive and is the best month I’ve ever had using OddsJam … so far. At this point, I’m up about $700 for the month and I hope to hit over $1000 by the time November has come to an end. It would be a great milestone to hit!

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