OddsJam Betting Results for Week 15 of 52

Welcome to week fifteen of a 52-week account of my experience over the year with OddsJam.

You can read about last week here: OddsJam Bettings Results for Week 14 of 52.

Recap

Week 15 was a good week! Even with a pullback on Saturday, I managed a significant upswing as well.

With a few days without many bets (a day out for work commitments and American Thanksgiving) I didn’t get as many bets in as I would like. However, I’m recognizing that in weeks with a very high number of bets (over 200) I just have less going on and have more time to check and find +EV and arb bets.

Some of the longer-term trends that I mentioned last week seem to have broken this week. Specifically, shots on goal and rebounds seem to have a bit of a bounce back. I have been more critical when placing those types of bets. I tried to make them closer to game time, have a narrower market width, and have a slightly higher +EV. I’ll keep at it and see how it goes, but early results are positive. Again, the sample size of these is very small. I should probably just ignore what I initially noticed and trust the process.

Getting early bets in on NFL games has been tricky. I’m just not seeing them pop up in the +EV or arb feed when I’m looking. It might simply be that I need to add some extra books to expand the possibilities. I was not even close to reaching my target of 30 bets on NFL games this week. Again, it might be that I should look at adding a few more books that have more NFL coverage. This is key considering NFL has been the second most profitable league behind only NBA, which has far more bets.

NBA bets were back in positive territory for the week. Given the number of bets I’m usually placing on NBA games, I expect most weeks to be positive as I’m getting in close to 100 bets a week on NBA, so the variance would hopefully even out.

NHL was a positive for the week as well. In fact, it was the most profitable league for the week, which is rare. The NFL was down less than $2. NCAA basketball was also a solid positive for the week. It is nice to cash in a bit on NCAAB, but I do find that it can have a much higher variance than other leagues, at least in my experience.

Another week of very high edges, so plenty of bets to place. I’ve started to take a closer look at the week overall by downloading my results from OddsJam (something that I really like) and it is surprising to see how many edges I’m placing at 4-5% and above. Needless to say, it was much more than I thought. There are still the 10%, 15%, 20% and above as well, which is always nice to see.

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Highlights

For this week, the biggest edge I found was in the Pelicans-Jazz game looking for Walker Kessler to have Under 6.5 rebounds at just under 23%. This was placed at odds of 2.28 (+128 American) and the CLV was 2.03 (+103 American). I missed again, but with an edge of 23%, I’ll make that bet all day long.

I did manage to hit on Jalen Green to have under 3.5 assists in the Rockets-Warriors game with an edge of 18.5%.

The longshot for the week came in the Oliers-Capitals game (what an awful start for the Oilers this year) with the Oliers hitting on the -0.5 first-period line with odds of 2.75 (+175 American). The Oilers put together a complete game there with a solid win over the Caps.

My worst miss for the week came in the Bruins-Panthers game when Evan Rodrigues had more than 2.5 shots on goal. The odds were 1.7 (-143 American), so not all that unexpected.

Results

A reminder that I made a change last week to post using real dollar figures (see my First Quarter update if you want to know why) knowing that I’m working with a much smaller starting bankroll ($3k) compared to many others using OddsJam. I hope the evidence of my journey is convincing enough if you are sitting on the fence about starting your own journey to become a profitable sports bettor.

A very good with again with a net profit of $248 for the week. Given that I started with a bankroll of $3k, that would be a return of over 8% in a week. OddsJam gives you a chance to compound that on a very frequent basis.

I placed even fewer bets than last week, with only 166 in for this week. Again, a drop-off that I don’t really want as my target is ideally 300+, but I’d settle for 200+. With the profit for the week, I can hardly complain. For the week, I’ve only placed 171 bets, which is a significant drop from the 277 last week. I’ve continued with just placing bets and not worrying about what is happening with results during the day. This strategy is going well.

Interesting that I’m up $248 for the week, yet I’ve only made gains on three of the seven days. Rare, but it does happen.

The Numbers

I beat the CLV 79% of the time this week. Taking some smaller edges may have played a part in reducing that from last week’s incredible 90%, which is too high. I won 54% of the bets I placed this week. That is higher than I would expect, but I did have a lot more slight favorites this week compared to some recent weeks.

My profit margin per wager is 8.32%, which is above the expected 6% or so that I have averaged over a longer time frame. The turnover this week was $2980, again a sizeable chunk of my bankroll. With a few more bets placed, I’m sure I’ll start to top out each week at over $3000 and will start to aim for at least $3500, if I can.

Sweet November

Sweet November has continued and it is still overwhelmingly positive and is the best month I’ve ever had using OddsJam … so far. I’m now up almost $1000 for the month. I set the target last week to be over $1000 for the month and it is well within reach, provided variance doesn’t drag me down. Honestly, I don’t even think of the target most of the time when placing bets. Still, it is hard to ignore the best month I’ve ever had with OddsJam and not consider the target of $1000 … perhaps higher.

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