OddsJam Betting Results for Week 17 of 52

Welcome to week seventeen of a 52-week account of my experience over the year with OddsJam.

You can read about last week here: OddsJam Bettings Results for Week 16 of 52.

Recap

Week 17 was solid! Five out of the seven days were in the green, and the red days were more than covered by the green days. No new records were set, but having five green days is always a good thing. With the first few days of December last week, and another very good week this week, I’m continuing on with the record-setting November (OddsJam Betting Results for November 2023) and still working on cracking $1000 profit in a month.

Again, it was a relatively slow week for getting bets in as my main hustle needed a bit more attention this week and I wasn’t able to check in for some extra bets during breaks. It really is amazing how putting in a few extra bets a day can add up so much. Like last week, there was also a lot of time with my two little ones, which is always worthwhile.

Arb notifications keep coming through, and it is helpful to see that there are times when there should be a lot of arbs to bet on. However, I’ve noticed two things: the time when they come in isn’t usually a time when I would be able to place the best, and the arbs can disappear quicker than I can even find the game to place the bets. I’ll keep the notification going for now as it is great to get those reminders even if I can only put in a few extra bets.

Player rebounds have continued to do well this week. Interestingly enough, player points and player assists have not had a good week and both have ended negative for the week. Player shots on goal also had a very good week. Staying the course was a good idea there and looking at the slight change to the edge I’m looking to take and the width of the market might just be enough to keep those as winning bets longer term.

I’m still trying to get in some extra bets earlier on NFL (and other sports now too). It is hard when those bets just aren’t there to make. It may take time to find the right book to help with that, but I’m not going to force bets just for the sake of making bets.

I mentioned last week that checking periodically for potential books to sign up with is easy with OddsJam as you can simply tick to add a book and see how many bets come up in the feed. I’ve learned to check these against what is actually showing at the book, just to make sure they are legit bets to be making. I’ve also started to check for new books using the low holds tool to see how many bets are available to help clear any bonuses. This has been helpful to find new books as well by simply looking for a book with enough bets available to be worth considering.

Soccer was the only sport that ended the week with a loss. NHL, NFL, NBA, and NCAAB all had positive a positive week. This was astounding in many cases as I didn’t have many bets placed. I am a bit concerned that the positive variance will start to slow and overall profit will revert to the mean. With sports betting using +EV (positive expected value aka value betting), that is all part of the process. Long-term the profits will be there.

There were not as many high edges this week, which continues the trend from last week. Again, that may just be down to not getting as many bets in for the week. I still had a good share above 5% to keep things heading in the right direction.

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Highlights

The biggest edge I found this week was an arb (arbitrage) bet on the Trail Blazers-Warriors game. Shaedon Sharpe’s PAR I managed to lock in for a guaranteed 16.9% profit! I’ll take that bet all day long! The rest of the +EV bets were nothing extraordinary, but they all add up.

The biggest miss for this week came in the Magic-Cavaliers game when Max Strus landed more than 4.5 assists. I was in on this at 1.64 (-156 American). It was a slim edge at just under 2%, which is a bit lower than the edges I usually take.

Results

I made a change a few weeks back and started to post using real dollar figures (see my First Quarter update if you want to know why). I’ve also started updating my bankroll every month, but will probably start doing that every week just to keep pace. Updating the bankroll more frequently looks like it will pay off. I can already see some my average bet size and weekly turnover increasing.

A solid week! They can’t all be winners with +EV, so days like Thursday and Friday will happen. I ended the week with $288 in profit, which works out to be an 11% average profit per wager for the week! That is a bit insane.

I had slightly more bets in this week at 112 compared to 109 bets last week. Both weeks are lower than I’d like. I’ll work on pushing through a few more bets this week again. Perhaps 200 is a lofty target. Or perhaps I can get there with some more arb bets. If I add a new book and need to clear a bonus, I will certainly get there.

Last week was rough and I commented that you need to keep a level head with +EV betting and not reduce your bet size (use the Kelly Criteria for bet sizing) just because you are on a losing streak. Kelly bet sizing will help that all out. It is equally important to NOT INCREASE your bet size (beyond the Kelly bet size) when you are on a winning streak. Stick with what we know works because we know why it works.

The Numbers

I beat the CLV 73% of the time this week, down slightly from last week. Smaller edges appear to be having an impact on this. I won 54% of my bets for the week which is higher than expected and that is reflected in the outsized gains for the week. Profit per wager for the week was 11%! This is much higher than expectations. A few high-edge arbs certainly would have helped. I bumped up my turnover for the week with $2600 worth of bets placed.

With my recent gains, I should be looking to increase that turnover amount. I’m sure I’d get there with more bets placed. However, I’ve also recently had a book limit me to $0 bets, and they already had small limits on player props. So, if I can find another good book to use, that might be all that I need to kick that turnover up a notch.

Double Your Money = $0 Bets

I had the unfortunate, but expected, happen this week. One of the books limited my account to $0 bets. The nature of +EV (positive expected value or value betting) means winning long-term. Books do not like that and will shut down our account eventually. It is unfortunate that in this instance it happened very quickly as I had doubled my initial deposit in just over a month. I started with $150 and most player props were limited bets to start with. During that time I placed just under 400 bets. Perhaps I should have slowed down at the start or played more parlays to throw them off. Not a major hiccup, but still a bit frustrating.

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Hit me up on X (Twitter) @BeyondTheEV if you ever have any questions about anything to do with OddsJam or want to follow along a bit more closely with my journey.

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