OddsJam Betting Results for Week 21 of 52

Welcome to week 21 of a 52-week account of my experience over the year with OddsJam.

You can read about last week here: OddsJam Bettings Results for Week 20 of 52.

Recap

Week 21 was not great. I’m still experiencing the negative variance monster in a big way, and he is clearly bloodthirsty and out for vengeance! The third rough week in a row gets tricky. Keeping a level head and following the process that we know works is crucial when experiencing these downswings. It will end. In all my time with value betting, having two weeks of negative returns is rare. Having three in a row is something I have never experienced before. I still have fond memories of November (my best month ever). Like last week, take it in stride, keep calm and carry on.

As most of this week is in January (ignore the blank for the last day of December, a glitch that OddsJam knows about with the time difference), 2024 is off to a very rocky start. I’ve been here before, like in October, yet I still managed to pull out a positive month then and I’m hopeful that I’ll pull out a win by the time January is done. Time will tell.

Two positives for the week with the NHL and NFL being positive for the week. Always good to know that we can pull some good out of a miserable week.

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“Believe you can and you’re halfway there.” – Theodore Roosevelt

Highlights

I found a huge edge this week at a 23% edge in the Hornets-Nuggest game. I had Brandon Miller to go over 24.5 PRA at 2.5 odds (+150 American) and the CLV was 2.09 (+109 American). I missed on that one. The biggest edge I landed this week was 14% was Klay Thompson finishing with under 3.5 rebounds in the Pistons-Warriors game.

The biggest longshot for the week was when Colorado State covered the -6 spread in the game against New Mexico at 2.37 odds (+137 American). Not that big of a longshot at all, but I’ll take it. The Avalanche-Stars game going over 7 goals was the biggest miss for the week at 1.6 odds (-167 American). The edge was only 1.78%, so maybe I should have left that one.

Results

I was down $137 this week, which is certainly an improvement over last week. However, I am hoping to get back into the win column this week. To be honest, I would like to be in the win column every week.

Again, we are measuring the results over the longer term. Since I started this blog to document my journey back in August, I’m still up and averaging about 3.5% profit/wager. hat number has come way down with these negative weeks, as you would expect. I know it was very high at the time with such a huge amount of positive variance. I was just hoping for a softer landing. I know I’ll be better off for the experience once I get through this.

The Numbers

I’m back to crushing the CLV (closing line value) at 87% for the week, which really is insane. I pushed my win rate up to 49%, which is probably about where it should be. The loss for the week may just be winning/losing on the wrong bets (ie win on a small bet, but lose on a big bet). This is why the win rate is not that great of a measure of success when +EV betting (value betting).

The negative profit/wager this week was -5.5%. Better than last week, although that is hardly the week to measure against. More bets in again with 119 bets placed, so about the same as last week. I’m probably looking for more value in my bets and taking higher edges, which may lead to fewer bets. Looking at the 119 number, I was a bit surprised it wasn’t more.

My turnover was up over last week with just over $2500 wagered. I’d still like to get in more bets and look to turn over my entire bankroll every week. A lot of that depends on what is available to bet on and where my bankroll is with the different books. As an example. there were so many games on a few days this week with NCAA Basketball, that I managed to wager my entire bankroll at one of the books, which is rare with that book because of my balance. However, at other books, it would be very easy to do with so little funds at that book.

It is great that OddsJam provides so much analysis on your wagers to help keep you informed as a sports bettor. After all, this whole premise is based on data.

Only a small dent in my bankroll for the week. Profitable bets were made and the negative variance monster will eventually let go so I can get back to profit.

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Hit me up on X (Twitter) @BeyondTheEV if you ever have any questions about anything to do with OddsJam or want to follow along a bit more closely with my journey.

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