I’m back! After more than a month off, I’m back to value betting with OddsJam! June broke my streak of 10 straight months of profit, but I’m back at it again with a green August to start my new streak!
August was a wonderful welcome back present, and finished solidly in the green! After a slow red day to start, I had a complete of solid green days and rode the green wave for the rest of the month.
I finished August with 10 red days and a solid 18 green days!
A good portion of my profit was driven again by MLB strikeout props, which drove a lot of the profit for the month. I’m still amazed sometimes at how a book can consistently misprice a market, but I have no complaints as I’ll take that edge every time I can get it!
It can be tricky in a month like August with so much winning to be a bit bold and start placing larger bets because you are on a ‘hot streak’. However, that is a foolish thing to do. Value betting (+EV betting) is about following the system to maximize the long-term growth of your bankroll. Trust the system, even when you have positive variance, to avoid running your bankroll and maximizing returns over the long haul.
What a run to for my first month back. OddsJam really does make it that easy: they find the bets with an edge, you place the bets and, over the long run, you will profit!
You can read about my project using OddsJam to become a profitable sports bettor in the Year of OddsJam. You can read more about my experience and the growth of OddsJam in My Two-Year Journey with OddsJam.
Recap
Starting August in the red wasn’t unusual, especially with only a few bets in for the day.
Things quickly turned around with a solid few days on the 3rd, 4th, and 5th! Green, green, and green. Not just a little green on those days, but solid returns for the number of bets I had placed.
By the time I hit the 15th, I had 8 green days to just 4 red days and was up over $300. In August 2023 when I started this journey, I was quickly growing my bankroll again.
The rest of the month continued much the same way, with another 10 green days compared to 6 red days. The profit wasn’t quite as high as the first half of the month, but that was expected as I was getting my share of positive variance.
So, a new streak starts with August 2024 in the books. How many months in a row can I finish in the green this time? I’ll stick with it and see if I can crush my current personal best of 10!
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Results
Here is my OddsJam ‘Wordle’ for August 2024! Look at all that green!
The vast majority of my bets for the month are on MLB games, with a few on soccer and tennis.
Strikeouts continued where they left off as a solidly profitable prop bet for me generating more than half my profit for the month.
The Numbers
Profit, CLV, and Win Rate
I finished August with a profit of $497, which currently ranks fifth all-time behind November 2023, February 2024, April 2024, and September 2023. It is a reflection of just how profitable value betting (+EV betting) with OddsJam can be, considering I started with a very modest bankroll.
My profit per wager for August was a very healthy 11.6%. That doesn’t happen every month, but I find that variance can be high month-to-month but does settle to a long-term trend over three or four months. My long-term average profit per wager is always between 3% and 4%. It fluctuates, but not a lot.
I managed to beat the closing line value 79% of the time, which is in line with my long-run average of 80%.
My win rate was back up to 52%, higher than it has been the past few months. Of course, the win rate is not a good indicator of profitability and we know that closing line value is the best indicator of long-term success with value betting (+EV betting).
Turnover and Profitable Leagues
Surprisingly, my turnover was down again. For August I managed just under $4.3k in turnover on 176 bets. Both of these are even lower than June, yet profitability was very different.
Besides baseball, some soccer and a little tennis, there isn’t much to bet on. I still can’t wait for the NFL, NBA and NHL to return.
Strikeouts were far and away the most profitable for me this month, earning me over $280 in profit alone. Not bad for a single type of bet.
Goals
Goals for August (updates in bold):
- Increase my bet volume. Getting above 250 will be my target. Given my last few months, I think that is more realistic. Miss. There just weren’t that many games to bet on. Combine that with being back to work after a long break and catching up on life, and I’m not surprised. I’m beginning to think I should set a goal for number of bets around the leagues that will be running. Now that I’ve been at this for more than a year, I should also be able to compare to the same month for last year.
- Start a new green streak. After the first red month in the past 11, getting back into the green is an easy goal to set. Done! August was very profitable and I’m happy to be back in the green!
- Hit $1k in profit. I’m keeping this goal until I hit it. Miss. With the volume and turnover, this was unlikely. Getting to almost $500 was remarkable on its own. I’ll keep this goal for now, but I will look at linking it to expected turnover as well (see comments on bet volume in my first goal).
Some goals for September:
- Increase my bet volume. Last year I placed 159 bets in September, so I’ll aim for over 170 this year.
- Continue the green streak I started in August. In the long term, I’m looking to take the streak past 10 straight profitable months.
- Place more than $5k worth of bets. Last year I had just over $3.1k. My bankroll has almost doubled since then, so this seems like a sensible goal.
- Hit $1k in profit. I’m keeping this goal until I hit it.
I’m very curious to know if I can hit $1k in profit for a month before the end of 2024! I’m certainly doing what I can to get there.
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