OddsJam Results: May 2024

The first few days of May started like many other months, a mix of red and green without anything to write home about. However, that quickly changed when I had a very rare six straight days of red!

By the time May finished up, I had 19 days in the red. Trusting the process in a month like May is difficult, to say the least. However, I stuck it out and still managed to finish up the month of May in the green.

That makes May the tenth straight profitable month I’ve had with OddsJam!

This reinforces my expectations since starting this journey using OddsJam daily for +EV betting. That expectation is profit month in and month out.

Finishing May in the green didn’t feel like it would happen in the first half. Not all months will set records (like November, February, and April), but May really did test the limits.

Recap

May started similar to many other months, a mix of red and green with the green out-weighing the red in the first few days. In the first four days, I was up over $180, and things looked very good.

Then I hit a rare stretch of six straight days in the read. That put me behind a good amount. Another four straight in the red the next week put things well behind. By the end of the 15th, I was down over $300 for the month.

Things started looking on on the 16th when I hit a good day, but I was still in the red overall. I trusted the process and kept playing bets that I knew had an edge and I was beating the closing line value which we know is the best indicator of long-term profit for +EV betting (value betting).

Then, like magic, negative variance turned to positive variance and I had a four-day win streak in the last week of May that helped put May into the green for the month.

Adding May as the tenth straight profitable month with OddsJam was a nice way to wrap up the month. Honestly, OddsJam is that good!

You can read about my project using OddsJam to become a profitable sports bettor in the Year of OddsJam. You can read more about my experience and the growth of OddsJam in My Two-Year Journey with OddsJam.

Is OddsJam Worth It?

Back when I started this journey, there was one question that kept popping into my head: Is OddsJam worth it?

Now that I’ve had ten straight months of profit with OddsJam, I think the answer is clearly yes!

Is there variance in +EV betting (value betting) absolutely. Month to month there have been wild swings in the amount of profit I’ve made. Yes, over and over again I see the results and they all point to profitability.

Since starting this journey two numbers have been very consistent: closing line value and profit per wager. I consistently beat the closing line 80% of the time. My profit per wager fluctuates but is steady long-term between about 3.5% and 4.2%. Those numbers tell me two things: I’m beating the books at their own game and I’m consistently profitable. What more could I ask for.

For those who aren’t sold on +EV betting, especially the ups/downs in profit, there are a ton of arbitrage bets (arbs) covered by OddsJam, including live arbs. You can read more about arbitrage betting in this article Profitable Arbitrage Betting.

If you are in the United States and have access to Fan Duel, Draft Kings, MGM, and Ceasers, etc., there are insanely profitable opportunities. Seriously, sign up for your free trial and take 35% off your first month with code Beyond35 and take advantage of a great side hustle using OddsJam!

Results

My OddsJam ‘Wordle’ for May looks rough because it is rough.

Six straight days in the red is very rare in my experience. Luckily, the four day win streak in the last week helped pull out the win!

With playoffs in the middle rounds for the NBA and the NHL, I’m not getting in as many bets. That might be part of the reason for the negative variance.

The first-half run line was a top bet to make this month, but even that is lower than other standout bets from previous months.

The Numbers

Profit, CLV, and Win Rate

May ended with a profit of just $42. That four-day win streak (especially the 27th!) was key to closing out the month in the green. My profit margin per wager was a tiny 0.55%, but green is green.

I managed to beat the closing line 80% of the time, which is right in line with my long-run average. Beating the closing line 80% is more than enough to be highly profitable as a sports bettor.

My win rate for May was 49%. That is lower than expected based on the odds I’m getting on my bets. The majority of my bets are placed in the -140 to +140 range with more bets on the favourites (just the way it works out) so I expect my win rate to be slightly higher than 50%. Over the course of a month, that 1% either way can make a big difference.

Turnover and Profitable Leagues

My turnover was down again. I can only bet what is in the feed, so as frustrating as it is, I know to take it in stride.

Turnover for the month was just under $7.7k on just over 280 bets. As I mentioned last month, I expect that as my bankroll increases, so will my turnover. That wasn’t the case this month as there simply were not enough opportunities for me to place more bets. I could have forced more bets, but that is a foolish thing to do.

I’m still struggling to find more books to use that have enough bets in the feed to be worthwhile. However, I’m still confident with he books that I have and the numbers of bets on offer. A significant part of the struggle is that I am in New Zealand and many books simply do not allow me to sign up. In the US, Europe, Canada, or Australia, this would not be a problem. I have also been limited at four different books already. They don’t like winning players and any suspect bets can be a sure way to get limited quickly.

The first-half run line in MLB games and player assists in NBA games were very productive wagers this month with profit on those two at $196 and $190 respectively.

NBA was my most profitable league this month at over $200. However, that still wasn’t enough to drive significant profit. MLB ended up in the red for the month, which is always going to make profitability difficult.

It really did feel like there should have been more profit this month, but it wasn’t. I’ll push again in June to see what is in store for me.

Goals

A review of the goals I set for May (updates in bold):

• Place 400+ bets again (500 would be ideal). I didn’t even come close this month.
• Look at my existing books first for more MLB bets. But, I’ll keep looking for more books to add. This is a mixed bag. There are more bets to place, but many of them are less ‘mainstream’ and have a much higher variance. I’m not sure that is a path I want to go down.
• Hit $1k in profit. I didn’t hit this goal either. Realistically, I would either need to hit a very long streak of positive variance or place a much higher volume of bets. That might not be possible with my current bankroll, number of books, and with just MLB on the go. But it will still remain a goal!

Some goals for June:

• Place 300+ bets. This would be a step up from May and is probably more realistic with only MLB on the go.
• Review the less ‘mainstream’ MLB markets to see if there are more bets worth adding.
• Hit $1k in profit.

I can’t wait to find out if I can hit 11 straight months of profit!

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