Another profitable month in the books using the OddsJam EV Tool! The new green streak has been extended to three months, and I am confident it will keep going! So far, out of 13 months of using the OddsJam EV Tool, I have been profitable in 12 of those months. Substantial evidence to answer the question: Does OddsJam work? Yes!
A bit of a surprise this month as my most profitable book finished down for the month. That is rare, but it was a bit of (significant) negative variance to start the NBA season and I know it will even out.
I’ve also been limited at another book, which is always frustrating. But I know what to do, take out my (significant) winnings, and look for other books!
Luckily, the NFL had a respectable showing and the NHL was solid.
Overall, October was a bit lower than expected, but still a profitable month!
I’ve tracked an entire year of sports betting using the OddsJam EV tool. You can read about my incredibly profitable year in my post: A Full Year of Profitable Sports Betting with OddsJam!
Recap
October started out mixed for the first week, but was solid in the second and third. Nothing out of the ordinary about that.
Up until the 20th, October was looking very solid with only five red days and a remarkable 15 green days. And all of those red days were relatively small losses. By the end of the 20th, after seven straight profitable days, I was up over $600. A tidy profit.
However, variance to start the NBA regular season took a chunk out of that in a real hurry. The last 11 days of October were a rollercoaster briefly pulling me into the red for the month. Luckily, I finished with two strong days in the last three to finish solidly in the green.
I’m never surprised anymore how quickly things can swing from positive to negative and back again. I always recommend monitoring success over a month to smooth out the variance. So far, that benchmark has served me well betting with OddsJam. I have had a single month finish in the red out of 14 months of active placing bets on a near-daily basis.
Based on my experience, how good is OddsJam? In a word: Great!
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Results
Here is my OddsJam ‘Wordle’ for October 2024! A lot of green, but a few big misses in those last few weeks.
With the NHL regular season underway, the NFL in full swing, and the NBA underway, I managed to get in a lot more bet volume. November will have even more opportunities.
NBA player assists and player 3’s made were the biggest drag on profit this month. Rebounds were solid. Surprisingly, MLB strikeouts were the biggest boost this month!
The Numbers
Profit, CLV, and Win Rate
October finished with $371 in profit. Not bad at all. It still isn’t cracking the top few spots for best of all time. However, with an increasing bankroll with all of these profitable months, I know it is just a matter of time, and a little positive variance, before I set some new all-time highs! This is even more likely over the next few months as the NBA is by far my most profitable league.
My profit per wager was down again, dropping to 2.78% which is below my long-run average. We’ll call this more of a soft landing, and hopefully, it picks up again in November.
I managed to beat the closing line 81% of the time, which is about what I’ve come to expect. It is a great sign that I tend to beat the closing line roughly 80% of the time. Overall, CLV is the BEST indicator of long-term profitability in value betting.
I was stuck at the same win rate as September at 49%. This is a bit low compared with the odds I was getting for a majority of my bets. Not to worry, it will sort itself out … in time.
Turnover and Profitable Leagues
My turnover and volume were way up over September. Both were more than double over September’s numbers. That is not a surprise with the NHL back, NFL continuing, and the NBA regular season getting underway.
For October, I managed to put in 477 bets. A good amount of volume, but I expect that to increase next month. My turnover was up significantly as well with over $13.5k in turnover.
Both numbers are up compared to October 2023 (329 bets, under $5k in turnover). That is just a reflection of my increasing bankroll which not only allows me to make bigger bets, but also more bets. My bankroll is concentrated at a few books which limits the bet size and number of bets I can place at some of the smaller books I use. It is a work in progress.
Strikeouts did some heavy lifting again with a profit of over $200. Not bad considering there were so few MLB games this month. Rebounds were also a solid contributor with over $190 in profit. Following close behind were 1st half touchdowns, Player Receptions, Team Total, and Total Points. That was balanced out by Assists and 3;s, which were significant drags on profit.
Goals
Goals for October
Updates in bold.
- Increase my bet volume. In October last year, I managed to place 329 bets. I’ll aim for 350 this year. Crushed! I had 479 bets in for the month.
- Continue the green streak, which is currently at two months. Overall, this is part of a goal to beat my longest green streak of 10 straight months. Tick. The new streak is now at three … and counting.
- Place more than $10k worth of bets. I placed a little under $5k worth of bets in October last year. With my increased bankroll, I think I can stretch this to over $10k in bets. Done. Over $13.5k in bets. I suppose I should be looking to double up over last year as my bankroll has doubled.
- Hit $1k in profit. I’m keeping this goal until I hit it. Miss. It was looking promising, but variance levelled out. It is interesting to consider that based on my turnover, hitting $1k in profit for the month would only take a 7.7% profit/wager which is well within reason.
Goals for November
- Increase my bet volume. In November last year, I placed 731 bets. I’ll aim for 800 this year.
- Keep the green streak, which is currently at three months, going strong. Overall, this is part of a bigger goal to beat my longest green streak of 10 straight months.
- Place more than $25k worth of bets. I placed just under $13.5k worth of bets in November 2023. My bankroll has grown, so my turnover should be growing as well.
- Hit $1k in profit. I’m keeping this goal until I hit it. To hit this with my long-run average profit/wager of around 3.5%, I’d need to place around $30k in bets, which is well within reach.
I’m very determined to hit $1k in profit for a month before the end of 2024. November last year was damn close. Will this year be even better than last year? I’m curious to find out!
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