My second month back after a break +EV betting (value betting) OddsJam and the new green streak continues! Another profitable month, as most are with OddsJam.
MLB strikeouts continue to be such a solid bet and a nice boost to my bankroll.
The NFL regular season got underway, which always adds a few more bets. Anything that increases my bet volume is a good thing.
I’m still eagarly awaiting the return of the NBA in a few more weeks. It is my most profitable league by a wide margin. I’m sure part of that has to do with the number of bets OddsJam identifies as having value. I know other leagues/sports (NHL) should have a lot more bets, but being in New Zealand and the books I have available here it just doesn’t seem all that popular.
So, how did the September numbers look? In a word: consistent.
You can read about my project using OddsJam to become a profitable sports bettor in the Year of OddsJam. You can read more about my experience and the growth of OddsJam in My Two-Year Journey with OddsJam.
Recap
September started out with a couple of solid red days, which is not great. However, I’ve been at this long enough to know this is part of the +EV betting gig, so I sit back, trust the process and keep on betting. Variance has a funny way of sorting itself out.
It took until about halfway through September to hit four green days in a row, which tipped me back into the green. The 23rd was a real change with a solid $200+ day (my first since I got back) that pushed me far enough into the green to ride it out for the rest of the month.
Big days (red or green) are interesting to me because they seem to create big swings. However, over the course of a month or two, variance always seems to level things off, and those big days become very short-lived.
The rest of the month continued much the same way, with another 10 green days compared to 6 red days. The profit wasn’t quite as high as the first half of the month, but that was expected as I was getting my share of positive variance.
A four-day red streak toward the end of September wasn’t great and pulled profits back in line with my long-run average of around 3.5%. No complaints it is just part of the process.
Extending my new streak to two months in a row was a nice way to continue my August return.
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Results
Here is my OddsJam ‘Wordle’ for September 2024! A respectable amount of green!
With NFL back, I managed to mix in a few more bets to go along with my usual MLB and a bit of soccer. Not much else.
Strikeouts continued where they left off as a solidly profitable prop bet for me generating the majority of my profits for the month. If only first-half total runs weren’t such a drag on profit this month.
The Numbers
Profit, CLV, and Win Rate
September finished with $222 in profit. That is well below the top five for last month, and nowhere near the top three (November 2023, February 2024, April 2024). It is no surprise that my best months tend to have more sports on and I know I get a lot more volume in during those months.
My profit per wager dipped a bit from the insane rate of 11.6% I had in August. I managed a much more reasonable 3.3%, very close to my long-run average. At 3.3%, that is a much softer landing after such a great month.
I beat the closing line value 87% of the time, which is incredibly high. Normally when it hits that high I end up with more profit, but it is just part of the variance that goes with +EV betting. To be profitable as a +EV bettor, CLV doesn’t need to be anywhere near this high, even though CLV is the best indicator of long-term profit.
My September win rate was 49%, a dip from the 52% I had last month. Again, just a bit of variance evening things out.
Turnover and Profitable Leagues
My turnover and volume were up again. With NFL back, that is not a surprise at all. NFL offers more bets, so I jump at the chance to get more volume which means more turnover.
I had 222 bets for the month (a fluke that this matches profit for the month) and a turnover of just over $6.6k. This is closer to where I’d like to be, but will be dwarfed by volume and turnover once the NBA is back!
Strikeouts again did very heavy lifting with a profit of over $400. I’d like more balance to my profit, but I find in most leagues there are one or two types of bets that dramatically outperform the rest. Perhaps it is just more of those bets come up as having an edge.
Goals
Goals for September (updates in bold):
- Increase my bet volume. Last year I placed 159 bets in September, so I’ll aim for over 170 this year. Done. With 222 bets in, I easily handled this goal.
- Continue the green streak I started in August. In the long term, I’m looking to take the streak past 10 straight profitable months. Done. This doesn’t surprise me after hitting 10 straight to start this journey. A nice goal to keep for next month.
- Place more than $5k worth of bets. Last year I had just over $3.1k. My bankroll has almost doubled since then, so this seems like a sensible goal. Done. Over $6.6k worth of bets. Even after adjusting for my bankroll increase since last year, I managed to beat this goal.
- Hit $1k in profit. I’m keeping this goal until I hit it. Miss. This wasn’t likely given the turnover, but it will stay a goal until I reach it, then I’ll bump it again.
Some goals for October:
- Increase my bet volume. In October last year, I managed to place 329 bets. I’ll aim for 350 this year.
- Continue the green streak, which is currently at two months. Overall, this is part of a goal to beat my longest green streak of 10 straight months.
- Place more than $10k worth of bets. I placed a little under $5k worth of bets in October last year. With my increased bankroll, I think I can stretch this to over $10k in bets.
- Hit $1k in profit. I’m keeping this goal until I hit it.
I’m very curious to know if I can hit $1k in profit for a month before the end of 2024! I’m certainly doing what I can to get there.
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