The Year of OddsJam: First Quarter

Just over 13 weeks ago, I started a year-long challenge to become a profitable sports bettor. (A Year of Sports Betting on OddsJam.) Here I am 13 weeks later, and things are going very well. A lot has happened over those 13 weeks, so I thought it worth the time to reflect on this journey.

Kickoff

My first reflection on this journey is that I should be posting actual figures and not the ‘betting units’ that I have been. From here on out, I’ll work with actual dollar figures to help make things clearer.

I am working with a modest bankroll compared to most that I know are posting about OddsJam around the internet. Some of the profits I have read about are from those working with a bankroll that is 5-10 times, or more, what I am working with. My bankroll was $3k (all figures are in USD) when I started this journey.

I am also a resident of New Zealand, so I am limited with the books available to me. The ‘Big Four’ books, namely DraftKings, FanDuel, MGM, and Ceasers, along with a long list of other books, are not available to me. This isn’t holding me back, as you will see below. What it is doing is showing me that OddsJam is a great tool if you want to be a profitable sports bettor even if you are starting with a limited bankroll.

I have no doubt that if I were in the US, Canada, Australia, or many European countries with access to different books I would still be profitable and would likely have access to even better +EV edges, more arbs, and bigger bonuses to grow my bankroll. In the US, starting with a bankroll of $1k is likely enough to build from.

August

This journey started on the 13th of August. Obviously, that means August wasn’t a full month and there were not many bets to be made. However, I wanted to start before the NFL, NHL, and NBA seasons kicked off at a quieter time of year for sports bettors simply so I could find my feet as I started this journey.

That first week I profited a mighty $8! Yep, a whole $8 on the 31 bets placed. Everyone has to start somewhere.

By the time August had finished, I managed to place 71 bets and earned a $116 profit. Amazingly, that was a 12.97% profit margin per wager, something I thought was well outside the norm and figured it was just some positive variance.

You can read about my results for August, September, and October or the beginning of this Year of OddsJam.

September

September started off very slowly, and there were a lot of days that were not profitable. However, I remember reading about dealing with variance and measuring progress month to month, not day to day when sports betting. So, I took it all in stride for the first few weeks of September and kept at it.

I started to hit a few more profitable days. Then some more. And then more again.

Hitting week 2 of the NFL season was a nice boost. In the MLB I hit more than my share of strikeout bets as well. September finished with seven days of straight profit!

All up, in September I placed 160+ bets, beating the CLV 80% of the time (insane), and had a sensational profit margin per wager of over 17%! This resulted in a profit of over $500. A very tidy return from my $3k bankroll.

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I stuck with it all knowing that once the NHL and NBA seasons started, I would have plenty of opportunities to place +EV bets again. Remember, we are looking to measure progress over a month, not over a day or a week.

Persistence paid off in the second half and I recovered with 12 profitable days in the second half of October. I put through over 320 bets in October, beat the CLV 85% of the time, and eeked out a profit margin per bet of 0.6%. The $35 profit for the month was fine given how October started.

Beating the CLV 85% of the time stung a bit as that is such a high number you would think I would have been more profitable. When this happens I remind myself that it is the long game we are playing, so a month like this isn’t unusual or unexpected. Take it in stride and keep placing those +EV bets.

November

My first quarter finished on 11th November, but it has been insanely profitable. I had back-to-back record-setting profitable days in the first week of November! And that was topped off with nine profitable days!

With NFL, NHL, NBA, NCAAF and NCAAB up and running, there are plenty of bets to place. Checking OddsJam multiple times a day, even for just 10 minutes, you recognize that the lines are always moving and that means there are always +EV bets to be made.

Trying to keep up with the pace of the bets means you need to be good at navigating the different books to get those +EV bets placed quickly.

Up until the 11th, I had placed 320+ bets, beat the CLV 84% of the time, and had a profit margin per wager just shy of 12%. All that has left me with $730 in profit so far in November. And all of this started with a $3k bankroll about three months ago.

First Quarter Results

The real story here is the cumulative results for the first 13 weeks of this journey, which I think are impressive and really show the possibilities when using OddsJam to find an edge.

I’m crushing the CLV by beating it 82% of the time. That is very high and shows that OddsJam is finding true +EV bets.

I’m winning 51% of my bets. This feels about right based on the general odds I’m placing, although it is probably a little high.

I’ve placed 880+ bets, and I keep placing more and more. I’m now placing more bets in a day than I did over a few weeks in August. And in the first few weeks of November, I placed more bets than I did in ALL of October.

My profit margin per wager is 9.5%. This is crazy! Unless I can find time to upgrade and start making in-game bets, I don’t think I could improve on the 9.5%.

For my efforts, I’ve profited a respectable $1439. This is close to a 50% return on the bets I’ve placed. Of course, there is the subscription cost to deduct. Even then, there is still a sizeable profit.

Want to know about the beginning of this Year of OddsJam? Or how about My Two Year Journey with OddsJam which laid the groundwork for profitability?

Lessons Learned

First and foremost: Making positive expected value (+EV) bets found using OddsJam works!

Second: Trust the numbers. You may not agree with some odds and think about playing a hunch or going with your gut. You can’t do that with +EV betting. Provided the margin is good enough, the market width is within reason, and it is close enough to the start of the game … you should place the bet.

Look for trends in your data. After you start to get sample sizes of 100+, you might start to notice that certain types of bets might not be profitable for you. Make some adjustments, if needed, to make sure this isn’t pulling you down emotionally. (Try to keep emotion out of it altogether.) For me, this is currently NBA player props for rebounds.

By adjustments I mean look at the edges you are taking and how far before game time you are placing the bets. Adjust those things and keep placing those bets for a while. To know if it is a particular market that isn’t profitable, you’d need a much larger sample size, statistically speaking, so you want to make sure you aren’t cutting off a profitable section just because of a bit of variance.

What Next?

For now, keep getting those bets in for November! I’m targeting $1k profit for the month.

Look to add a few more books to grow my bankroll through bonuses and through more available bets, both +EV and arbs.

Let’s see where the next 13 weeks of this journey take me.

Disclaimer: Links to OddsJam are affiliate links and I am not hiding that. I truly believe in their product and use it daily. Visit OddsJam for a 7-day free trial and see for yourself.